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Previsiones estacionales otoño/invierno 2022-2023

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begueta:
La extensión de la nieve en el hemisferio norte ahora se encuentra entre las más altas de la media de los últimos 56 años. Aumenta la probabilidad de un pronóstico de frío temprano en el invierno tanto en América del Norte como en Europa

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/snow-extent-northern-hemisphere-highest-56-years-winter-cold-rrc/

jota:

--- Citar ---It's been 11 years since the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) had a daily value of -2σ or lower during December.

The streak may end next week!

The following Decembers had NAO values ≤-2: 1961-63, 1970, 1976-78, 1997 & 2008-10.




Cutting to the chase, here's how Northern Hemisphere snowfall looked during previous episodes of a strong negative NAO (≤-2) in December.

Above normal snowfall was favored along the U.S. East Coast, Midwest & across Europe.



During previous episodes of a strong negative NAO (≤-2) in December, temperatures had a tendency to be below normal across the central & eastern U.S., Canada & throughout Europe



The December 2022 -NAO event looks similar to the major historical episodes, but every event is different!

We live in a warmer climate now and it will be interesting to see how this traditionally cold mid-latitude teleconnection manifests itself in our sensible patterns.



The block party may not stop in December!

In the January following the 11 strong -NAO Decembers, there was a higher incidence of the -NAO pattern: the NAO was negative in 62% of January days.

This favored a continuation of colder than average mid-latitude temperatures.




--- Fin de la cita ---

jota:
Perspectivas del tiempo para el final del año

jota:
¿El inicio de un ciclo húmedo?

Javi_coco:
Bueno, a ver si ahora con la AEMET de cara, vemos algo.

¡¡ Ojalá !!

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