February Risk of Floods analysis .
The attached two cards utilized two proxy measures that  may characterize Risk of Floods and Water Runoff-( U-Delaware and GPCC precipitation indices ).

Short summary: The regions enveloped by rectangles may experience severe rainfall risk and possible flood risk during February particularly the regions highlighted with deep blue and /purple anomalous colors including but not only : Western Spain and Portugal North, Southern Spain ( Seville, Cordoba, Jaein, Malaga, Granada  ) beside  the Sardinia island , SW France, SE France, North Italy during the first half of February . In addition, according to the weekly analysis things might worsen with  stormier conditions in the second half of February in the sea of Iberia and Tyranena sea and Sea of Crete with associated risk of floods in parts of Italy, Libya, Tunisia and the nearby countries .

Note:  These analyses ( weather outlooks)  are statistically based and are made with 2-nearby K-means cluster analysis  to identify possible analogs for February . These  weather outlook are probabilistic ( qualitative views ) and should be accompanied by Numerical Weather Prediction Models views for the given period/s .
Later I will be posting weekly analysis maps to show the possible temporal risk of floods for the weeks of February: week by week for the same region  .
Special credit and courtesy to NOAA physical science laboratory maps  .

Análisis de riesgo de inundaciones de febrero.
Las dos tarjetas adjuntas utilizaron dos medidas proxy que pueden caracterizar el riesgo de inundaciones y escorrentía de agua (índices de precipitación de U-Delaware y GPCC).

Resumen breve: Las regiones envueltas por rectángulos pueden experimentar un riesgo severo de lluvias y posible riesgo de inundaciones durante febrero, particularmente las regiones resaltadas con colores anómalos azul profundo y / púrpura, incluyendo pero no solo: España occidental y norte de Portugal, sur de España (Sevilla, Córdoba, Jaein, Málaga, Granada) junto a la isla de Cerdeña, suroeste de Francia, sureste de Francia, norte de Italia durante la primera quincena de febrero. Además, según el análisis semanal, las cosas podrían empeorar con condiciones más tormentosas en la segunda quincena de febrero en el mar de Iberia y el mar de Tyranena y el mar de Creta con el riesgo asociado de inundaciones en partes de Italia, Libia, Túnez y los países cercanos.
Nota: Estos análisis (previsiones meteorológicas) se basan en estadísticas y se realizan con un análisis de conglomerados de K-means de 2 días cercanos para identificar posibles análogos para febrero. Estas previsiones meteorológicas son probabilísticas (vistas cualitativas) y deben ir acompañadas de vistas de modelos numéricos de predicción meteorológica para el período o los períodos dados.
Más adelante estaré publicando mapas de análisis semanales para mostrar el posible riesgo temporal de inundaciones para las semanas de febrero: semana a semana para la misma región.
Crédito especial y cortesía a los mapas del laboratorio de ciencias físicas de la NOAA.

This analysis looks at the statistically analogous predicted rainfall for the end of April ( 24_30 April).
The yielded ( predicted) general pattern suggests wetter conditions and Ranier weather during the second and third decades of April over the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic sea but during the last seven days of April things appear to become worse as shown in the photos attached to this post.

The blue and purple color anomalies in the maps imply weather instability ( thunder storms) and the deep purple   color denotes possible torrential rainfall imprints /events  ( or likelihoods ) to expect during the designated period.

The Yellow & Green colors  imply  temporary weather stability ( for 1-2 days) .
In a nutshell: We may see wetter conditions during 2nd and 3rd decades of April but things might get worse over the Iberian Peninsula during Late April days ( 24-30 April) .

This analysis is statistically yielded and is probabilistic and isn't deterministic ( i.e., is not must have word by word) .