Rainfall & Flood Risk Outlook | 17 April → 2 May
(32 Analog Seasons | ML + Statistical Composite | 3-day moving windows)
A clear chronological progression is observed, with rainfall activity shifting from the Western Mediterranean → Central → Eastern regions over time.

17–22 April (Early Phase)
Focus on Eastern Spain & Balearic region
Extension into Northern Algeria / Western Mediterranean
Elevated convective activity and localized flood risk

22–28 April (Peak Phase)
Intensification over Italy, Sardinia, Sicily
Strong signals over Tunisia & Central Maghreb
Recurrent low-pressure systems and organized rainfall bands

27 April – 2 May (Late Phase)
Eastward shift toward Adriatic & Western Balkans
Continued activity over Central Mediterranean
→ Multi-day rainfall accumulation and flooding potential Primary High-Risk Zones:
Eastern Spain
Northern Algeria & Tunisia
Italy (central & southern regions)
Adriatic & Balkans (late period)





Early May : Western Spain and Portugal as well as Northern Italy and Spain may still get high odds of torrential rainfall for the period extending between late April and 3rd of May.