Boas desde Portugal (Algarve).
Citando o Estofex
"NW Spain and Portugal ...
The general model pool coincides in the general evolution of this thunderstorm event. A well defined cyclonic vortex just west of Portugal will be nearly stationary during the next 24 hours. Attendant mid-/upper-level wind field favors a region of intense upper-level divergence over Portugal, which is forecast to shift slowly towards the N / NNW.
In addition, GFS allows small pieces of energy to cross the region from the south, which should also enhance the forcing. As mid-level lapse rates steepen somewhat during the forecast period and mixing ratio increases to at or above 10g/kg, a weakly capped atmosphere will be present with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Widespread thunderstorm development over SW Spain and S / central Portugal will be underway during the morning hours and a cluster of storms should evolve with a NNW- movement.
Shear is not that strong with DLS of 15-20m/s but should support multicell storms and isolated supercells ( mid-level rotation could be supported by intense cyclonic vorticity ). LCLs are quite low and an isolated tornado is possible although the main risk will be a hail risk ( possible large ).
A better environment for tornadoes could evolve over N-Portugal and NW Spain during the evening / night hours, if latest model trends of GFS area right as LL shear increases to more than 20m/s and 400 J/kg SRH1will be present ! This looks reasonable regarding the intense veered flow ."
Tema: Seguimiento ESPECIAL: episodio de tormentas sobre la Ibérica (22-08 al 26-08) (Leído 17396 veces)