A large upper trough is cutting off over the Iberian Peninsula. Cold air has invaded the western Mediterranean Sea and the cold front remains virtually stationary today over western/central Italy to Slovenia, with slight retrograde motion on Monday morning, as cyclogenesis is in progress over the southern part of the western Mediterranean Sea with easterly winds picking up.
...eastern Spain....The Balearic Sea hosts a trough filled with modest CAPE which will advect onshore and trigger storms in the coastal convergence zone, which may remain offshore but drag inland near Valencia. Locally deep layer shear is predicted to be 20 m/s but low level shear is not strong and storm motion will be slow. This creates mainly a excessive precipitation threat where storms affect land. Low level buoyancy should be large, favorable for waterspout type tornadoes in convergence lines.