Fogonazos al oeste de Elche, algo se me acerca  Esto si que no me lo esperaba!!

Cita de: Rain en Octubre 13, 2005, 00:19:04 am

Fogonazos al oeste de Elche, algo se me acerca  Esto si que no me lo esperaba!!

Pues tate atento amigo.. quizas tengas mas de lo que esperabas

Pues debe haber cierta inestabilidad por la zona, porque esta tarde con el frente aun lejos, se ha formado un pequeño nucleo casi encima que ha dejado un chaparrón y ahora hasta hay actividad eléctrica  Aunque no creo que la cosa llegue a mucho...

Estofex



CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Thu 13 Oct 06:00 - Fri 14 Oct 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 12 Oct 22:30 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GATZEN


SYNOPSIS

While blocking high over western Russia moves eastward ... upper trough at its southern flank over the Balkans remains quasistationary. Over western Europe ... sharp trough west of Iberian Peninsula cuts off ... and new high pressure system strengthens over southern North Sea. At lower levels ... a cold front crosses British Isles, North Sea region, and western/northern Scandinavia during the period ... replacing warm and moist airmass. To the south ... easterly winds at the northern flank of Iberian cut-off low advect moist and unstable airmass westward into France, and into Bay of Biscay again. Over the Mediterranean ... unstable airmass is expected to remain.

DISCUSSION

...Southern France, northwestern Mediterranean ...
At the northern flank of building cut-off low over Iberian Peninsula ... warm and very moist airmass originating from tropical storm Vince is advected northwestward into France. Aloft ... quite strong vort-max/short-wave trough moves northward reaching southern France on late Thursday. Strong WAA and quite strong DCVA should result in strong QG forcing ... and given very moist airmass and weak instability ... showers and thunderstorms are forecast. Strong (20+ m/s) DLS is expected by latest GFS model run ... and convection may merge into one or two MCS's over northwestern Mediterranean ... capable of producing isolated large hail, severe wind gusts and possible a tornado. However ... main threat will be intense precip and associated flash flooding over southern France.

...Western Mediterranean ...
Cold front of building cut-off low over Iberian Peninsula will cross parts of western Mediterranean on Thursday. East of the cold front ... warm and unstable airmass will be present ... characterized be rich low-level moisture and neutral to slightly unstable lapse rates. Weak QG forcing underneath approaching jet streak at the eastern flank of the cut-off low ... as well as low-level convergence along and east of the cold front should be strong enough to initiate showers and thunderstorms. While DLS in the range of the upper jet streak should remain west of the cold front ... amount of vertical wind shear should be quite weak to the east ... and chance for organized thunderstorms should be quite low. An isolated event is not ruled out, though.

...Central Mediterranean ...
Unstable airmass over Mediterranean remains. Quite steep low-level lapse rates and relatively rich low-level moisture ... as well as weak vertical wind shear over most places may be favorable for a few waterspouts. Allover threat seems to be lower than Wednesday.


Saludos!

Buenos días desde Mallorca, tal com me esperaba, por aqui nada, inapreciable esta noche y ahora pocas nubes, todo hacia Cataluña donde en Barcelona esta noche han caído 140 mm, o sea en Baleares esta noche apenas a llovido y viendo el meteosat poco optimisto tengo, solo dos remotas esperanzas, la tormenta del Cabo de Nao que se agrande y una masa de nubes que hay dentro Africa que le de para viajar hacia el norte cogiendo circulación ciclónica

FrenteMojon.com   el que nos ha pasado, 2.5 litros que en el pluviometro daban la risa
Ahora mismo despejado todo el cielo, y en la radio dice que hay cielos nubosos, en fin, se ve que en la radio no hay ventanas o que el locutor esta ciego.

Al norestede alicante 60 Db a esta hora....vaya tela.

FrenteMojon.com   el que nos ha pasado, 2.5 litros que en el pluviometro daban la risa
Ahora mismo despejado todo el cielo, y en la radio dice que hay cielos nubosos, en fin, se ve que en la radio no hay ventanas o que el locutor esta ciego.

Al norestede alicante 60 Db a esta hora....vaya tela.

Tranquilo Dani tio! Ha debido de caer mas por el interior.. el GFS 2 dias antes ya marcaba un frente debilucho por aqui... y nosé donde lo dije reiteradas veces de que nos venia demiasado apretado...
Haber que pasa con el dia de hoy si por lo menos vemos algo... y sino pues a la siguiente.. al menos los casi 24.7 mm no me los quita nadie.. 

Y 13º grados que hay ahora ... brrr que frio ...