OJO RAIN QUE SE PUEDE LIAR... Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 03 May 2006 06:00 to Thu 04 May 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 02 May 2006 19:54
Forecaster: TUSCHY
SYNOPSIS
Highly amplified weather pattern continues over Europe with an impressive upper level trough over the NE Atlantic and another, more inactive, trough over eastern Europe.
DISCUSSION
...most parts of Spain, the Strait of Gibraltar and eastward...
Models forecast a broad trough to slide towards the NE, crossing the area of interest during the forecast period... Latest satellite loops indicate that models like GFS master the situation pretty well ( with impressive subtropical jet presentation and landfall of the core along the W-coast of Morocco)... Main concern for severe TSTM development/ ongoing storms will be during the morning and noon hours mainly over the level 1 area...
Closed low-level depression consitently forecast to develop east of the Strait of Gibraltar, moving slowly towards the east and starting a weakening trend from the noon hours onward.
Despite the fact that shear parameters will ease pretty fast over the level 1 area, models indicate convective development/ ongoing storms in an environment with up to 20m/s DLS and enhanced LL shear... Instability will be confined to the coastal areas and offshore, where storms will be surface based...
Current thinking is that storms will already have clustered and therefore tornado possibilities will be limited ( mainly with more discrete cells), but main risk will be a severe wind gust/ isolated large hail risk.Storm coverage should slowly decrease during the late morning hours such as severe threat will do.
Scattered TSTMs should also develop over most parts of Spain as a consequence of widespread moderate instability release....kinematic parameters too weak for an organized severe weather threat, but don't want to exclude an isolated large hail report with stronger storms ( e.g. NW Spain/N-Portugal).