Al final va a tener razon don easterbrooks

Buenas tardes noches a todos aqui os dejo la prevision a fecha 16 de Noviembre de cara al Invierno 2014/2015 

Mañana actualizan dia 23, luego el dia 30 de Noviembre y la definitiva el dia 1 de Diciembre.


Winter 2014-15 Forecast Updates here

Seventh Winter 2014-15 Update (16/11/14)

This is the seventh and penultimate Winter 2014-15 forecast update video for the United Kingdom and Europe. Created on 16th November 2014 the video get's together various elements that will eventually make up the GavsWeatherVids Winter 2014-2015 Forecast at the end of November to see how these elements are progressing.

Following on from last week's update the video looks once again at the QBO (Quasi-Biennial-Oscillation) which is heading into it's easterly phase (meaning zonal westerlies are reduced across the northern hemisphere) and this time combines it with the recently released OPI (October pattern index) number - Which came out at a very negative -2.12.

Using analogues from years (1976, 1984, 1986, 2009 and 2012) with OPI's under -1 and putting it together with the easterly QBO we have are able to determine that a colder than average winter is expected, with all analogue years pointing coming out with a colder than average January. December show's the most variability. Between colder than average, average or milder than average outcomes, though even here a colder than month is still just favoured.

Elsewhere the weak El Nino continues to progress very slowly. The SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) has become far less negative in recent day's compared to the sixth update. Nevertheless, very weak, central based El Nino conditions are still expected for winter 2014/15 - This can favour the chance of a colder than winter in both the United States of America and Europe.

Solar activity continues to gradually fall away from the solar maximum which occurred last winter. We are still get regular spikes in sunspots though. One of those occurred in September, but October saw a significant reduction in sunspot numbers, taking back to where we was through most of 2012 and early 2013.


The weaker sunspot activity is, the greater the chance of Arctic blocking occurring with the jet stream moving south and becoming meridional. However, as we saw in September, further spikes in activity are likely to occur, not just during the coming winter, but probably during the next year or two. At the same time the overall trend will be downwards into the solar minimum of Solar Cycle 24. And we must always remember that SC24 is the weakest recorded solar cycle for a Century which means even when we get spikes in activity they should have far less impact overall, compared to many solar cycles in the 20th Century.


The eighth and final Winter 2014/15 forecast will be released at GavsWeatherVids on Sunday- Sunday 23rd November. This will be followed by the final seasonal model round-up video on Sunday 30th November. The final and official Winter 2014/15 forecast will then be released at GavsWeatherVids.com on the evening of Monday 1st December.


Meanwhile, if you would like to leave a message or comment about this or any of the other updates on this page you can use the comment box at the bottom of this page.

Enlace donde viene la informacion: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/nao14-15.php#here

Saludos de Rafa

Hello again everyone.
Firstly let me apologise for not replying quicker. Please do not think i am rude. I have been very busy juggling work commitments as well as weather forecasting.
Thank you all for the warm welcome after my previous post, very kind

I have finished my winter forecast which u can view here: londonwx.wordpress.com/winter-1415/
This explains my thoughts for winter in much more detail than my earlier post.

Halo 46th: Thanks for the reply, i am also only amateur.  It is nice to share ideas and thoughts with like minded people
My response to all of your points is covered in the winter forecast but if u want to discuss further, that is great.
Everything seems to be coming along nicely. The snow cover response, the early vortex disruption, the sst pattern in the Atlantic, the amplified MJO phase. It looks good. I do wish solar activity was less active but i am still hopeful that we see SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) late December/early January, with significant cold in parts of Europe soon after.

You will notice that my forecast only calls for cold in northern Spain in January. Its very difficult to be so specific. I expect the jet stream further south but how far the European cold pool travels SE into SW Europe (Spain) will depend upon the exact track of low pressure systems. Therefore i can not rule out more of Spain getting colder during winter than my forecast suggests so there is a chance

Thank you very much!

No problem sir!
Not a very popular forecast for Spain! But like i said, there is still a chance for cold to reach spain.
Fingers crossed

Pues el calentamiento a largo plazo, según el ECMWF, lo tenemos encima 

Perdonad mi ignorancia, pero ¿que consecuencias tendría un calentamiento estratosférico JUSTO ENCIMA de nuestras cabezas?

Un saludo y gracias de antemano 

There was some hype with the november warming and wave activity. Its a slow process especially at a time when the polar vortex is cooling and trying to intensify. But the wave activity and warming did have a good effect on the PV, resulting in a much weaker vortex and those westerly winds associated with a strong polar vortex have reduced nicely.  Stratospheric temperatures were close to record levels (briefly).  Now we have a small period of vortex intensification before wave activity resumes and (hopefully) wave 2 comes in strong. End of December still holds some small potential.  Will we see atlantic high pressure move towards greenland? Its possible and i'm still watching the period 22-30th December closely.  I still prefer January as a more likely timeframe for SSW, and then a log before cold hits europe but still cant rule out some (brief) colder spells in December. 
Imagine if we had not seen the November warming? Then we would be starting December 3 steps back. So even though November warming didnt deliver cold to most of europe, it was still beneficial in terms of the bigger picture and i'm very hopeful going forward into winter. Good luck all you snow lovers

David esas son las temperaturas que vamos a tener entre 10 y 20 Km. ? entonces a nivel de superficie cual sería la temperatura?? pues ese mapa acojona un poco. Gracias