Pues esto dice...
ESTOFEX DISCUSSION
North-eastern SpainOver western Mediterranean/eastern Spain ... latest soundings indicate an EML originating from the Atlas mountains ... that is advected into Bay of Biscay ahead of the approaching trough. At lower levels ... especially over western Mediterranean substantial boundary-layer moisture has formed as indicated by Palma de Mallorca sounding ... where low-level mixing ratio reaches about 13 g/kg.
Quite strong capping inversion was present over most of the region ... while well mixing occurred at the northern coast of Spain where EML reached the surface locally during the night.
Today ... mid-level height falls are expected over Iberian Peninsula in the range of approaching trough ... while insolation is should occur over eastern Spain.
Both effects should lead to weakening of capping inversion ... and increasing southerly flow ahead of approaching surface low over western Spain should lead to upslope flow over north-eastern Spain. Although DCVA will be weak/negative east of the main vort-max ... models do indicate WAA ... and UVM over western Iberian Peninsula should spread into the eastern portions
during the afternoon ... and it is expected that initiation will take place during the afternoon/evening hours.
Thunderstorms that form will have a potential to organize given
strong vertical wind shear in the range of upper jet ... and strong SRH values forecast by latest GFS model run ... showing weak surface low forming over south-western Mediterranean with backing winds over eastern Spain ... should be
favorable for mesocyclones. Expect that a few storms will form ... at least isolated large hail and severe wind gusts should be likely. Given strong LLS ... isolated supercells should also pose a
threat of tornadoes. Thunderstorms are forecast to weaken during the night hours.
Western/central Iberian Peninsula, Bay of BiscayTropical airmass advects into western Iberian Peninsula today. Latest satellite image shows a narrow band of convection reaching into SWrn Spain. In the range of this warm airmass ... models indicate very
strong vertical wind shear and low-level helicity. Although nearly neutral lapse rates are present ... weak CAPE should be possible during the next hours ... and
non-supercell tornadoes are forecast to form over western Iberian Peninsula.
A couple of events is not ruled out ... but as there is no lightning observed ATTM ... amount of instability seems to be rather weak ... indicating that strong convection will not form during the next hours ... and a level 2 seems to be not warranted. During the day ... instability in the range of the warm airmass will be rather unlikely over central Iberian Peninsula and Bay of Biscay ... but convection that forms and roots to the boundary-layer
may produce tornadoes as well given favorable low-level wind shear. Further north and east ... chance for thunderstorm once decreases ... and severe convection seems to be not likely ATTM near British Isles/France.
Ojo con los tornados. Hoy va a estar complicado el cielo por más de un sitio, vamos que para quien le aterroricen las turbulencias aéreas, mejor pensárselo dos veces antes de coger un avión.
Tema: TORMENTAS Septiembre 2006 (solo seguimiento, localización y evolución) (Leído 39855 veces)