Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Foro de meteorología => Mensaje iniciado por: jota en Septiembre 09, 2011, 17:11:06 pm
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Ex-Katia promete crear un fuerte temporal de viento y lluvia en el Reino Unido en los próximos días.
Los mapas del MetOffice dejan bien a las claras la situación que tendrán en unas jornadas.
El servicio meteorológico del Reino Unido ya está realizando previsiones especiales para la situación que se les avecina:
(http://i.picasion.com/pic44/11d37ce20dac9e8762257f6d1300890d.gif)
Mapas en superficie desde + 24 horas a +120 horas:
(http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/8695/katia24.jpg)
(http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/6392/katia48.jpg)
(http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/4818/katia72.jpg)
(http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/1015/katia96.jpg)
(http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/4338/katia120.jpg)
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:O* :O* :O*
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6857/144839W5_NL_sm_wgz8.gif)
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En modo lluvias, GFS dibuja el rastro de Katia por el Atlántico Norte:
(http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/9198/exkatialluvias.jpg)
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Katia esta mañana en el Atlántico Norte:
(http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/684/ir4l.jpg)
Análisis en superficie hoy a las 06 UTC:
(http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/6815/hoykatia.jpg)
Metoffice está siguiendo a Katia. Ha lanzado una previsión especial:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/m/q/Transcript_Press_release.pdf
Y nos muestra también huracanes que siguieron una trayectoria casi calcada a la suya. Por ejemplo, Bill en 2009:
(http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/4042/bill2009.jpg)
O Lili en 1996:
(http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/3186/lili1996.png)
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/tag/katia/
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[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvf6iZVnG9I&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
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Imagino que en el Reino Unido andarán muy pendientes de esa profunda depresión atlántica con vientos sostenidos que pueden ser realmente huracanados.
:-X
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Interesante análisis del CNH en el último parte de discusión que van a emitir sobre KATIA:
000
WTNT42 KNHC 101456
TCDAT2
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011
KATIA HAS LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT STILL REMAINS
A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER OF KATIA PASSED JUST
NORTH OF CANADIAN BUOY 44140 AROUND 11Z...AND THE BUOY REPORTED A
PRESSURE OF 957 MB WITH 31 KT WINDS. BASED ON THAT INFORMATION...
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF KATIA IS ESTIMATED TO BE 954 MB. AT
12Z...THE SAME BUOY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 62 KT IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION JUSTIFIES KEEPING
THE INTENSITY AT 70 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A VERY BRISK 060/46 KT. KATIA IS EMBEDDED
IN DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION.
POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN BRITISH ISLES ON MONDAY. THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...
TVCN...AND GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
KATIA HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED BY AT LEAST 10 MB OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...THESE PRESSURE FALLS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO THE INCREASE IN
BAROCLINIC ENERGY ACROSS THE SYSTEM AND NOT DUE TO CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE KATIA HAS MERGED WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND THE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ACT TO KEEP KATIA AS A STRONG POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
UNTIL IT REACHES THE BRITISH ISLES ON MONDAY. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF NHC INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE AND INPUT
FROM THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. CURRENT WIND RADII WERE
ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT BUOY REPORTS...AND FORECAST WIND RADII
WERE PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NO 96-HOUR FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN PROVIDED DUE TO SOFTWARE ISSUES
WHEN SYSTEMS MOVE EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED ON KATIA BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE BRITISH ISLES AND
NORTHERN EUROPE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THE UK MET OFFICE AT WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/WEATHER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 44.7N 47.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 11/0000Z 47.5N 38.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/1200Z 51.5N 27.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0000Z 54.5N 19.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/1200Z 57.5N 11.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1200Z 61.0N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1200Z...EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Del blog de Jeff:
Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada this morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 52 mph into the open Atlantic. With water temperatures 19°C (66°F) underneath it, Katia has lost its tropical characteristics, and has transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia will continue east-northeastward towards Europe, and on Monday, the storm will pass very close to northern British Isles. The offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland can expect storm-force winds of 50 - 60 mph on Monday as Katia roars past to the north. The storm will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.
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Le he mandado el enlace de la portada a mi hija de Erasmus por Londres para que se cuide de los árboles.
Gracias por los avisos.
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Ahí viene!
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Lo veo bastante al sur, casi en la latitud de Galicia... ::)
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1009/goes_sigwx_1070_100110911_rbr7.jpg)
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Aspecto actual de ex-KATIA, que ya no guarda ninguna semejanza con lo que era hace tan sólo 24 horas al menos...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5584/nrEtvORLNx4rB_oxm3.jpg)
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¿El Huracán Katia puede dejar algo de rostro por Galicia?
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Ex-Katia se encontraba a las 9 AM (hora local de Reino Unido) a unos 200 Km al Noroeste de Sligo, Irlanda, con una presión central de 966 hPa, según confirma Metoffice.
En la imagen satelital en ese momento en modo visible podemos visualizar perfectamente su vórtice:
(http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/867/visibleimage9am12sep.png)
En la zona los vientos están arreciando, registrando rachas de 131 Km/h en Capel Curig, en las montañas situadas al Norte de Gales, como registro más destacado.
Advertencias meteorológicas por Metoffice: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html
Última previsión:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tvlI5U9FVA&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
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[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUwZun-6uUA[/youtube]
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Ex-Katia ayer, rozando Irlanda:
(http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/2232/83720110912katiaireland.jpg)
Las rachas de viento, rondaron los 130 Km/h en muchas zonas del Norte de las islas:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6uds1pSCBo&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quhyVXKG8oo[/youtube]
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Precioso :) Lo que puede dar de si un huracan potente...