Lo cierto es que ha dejado imágenes escalofriantes, yo tengo unos amigos viviendo en holanda y según me han dicho casi todas las semanas hay alguna tormenta, pero que ha habido un par de veces que el cielo se quedaba totalmente oscuro, como si fuese de noche y eran tormentas terribles, pero nunca me han dicho nada sobre tornados...

Uhmm... acabo de pensar en algo, ¿tiene influencia la cercanía del mar para el desarrollo de fenómenos suficientemente violentos como para generar tornados? Hablo de células o núcleos tormentosos supermasivos...

Bestial pedro 

Vaya barbaridad 

Esto es todo lo que aparece en ESTOFEX, aparte de los reportes, claro... hilaron fino y acertaron en su pronostico...

Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 15 Aug 2008 06:00 to Sat 16 Aug 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 14 Aug 2008 21:16
Forecaster: TUSCHY/GROENEMEIJER

* * * A major severe-weather outbreak is forecast for parts of the central Mediterranean, the northwestern Balkans and parts of central Europe. Severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and significant hail can be expected. * * *

SYNOPSIS

A very dynamic upper-level trough, centered over France during the morning hours, is on its way to the east, approaching the Alpine region during the late afternoon/evening hours as a negative tilted and still strengthening upper trough. This feature dictates the weather over most parts of Europe as intense WAA downstream of this system spreads northeastwards, while much cooler and more stable air infiltrates NW Europe. Between both airmasses, a quasi-stationary and undulating frontal boundary has established during the past days. This boundary changes into a cold front over central Italy, Austria, the Czech Republic, and SW Poland, and into a northward advancing warm front over central and northern Poland. Very hot conditions continue over the central Mediterranean, eastern and southeastern Europe.

...Poland...

The aforementioned wavy frontal boundary will get modified by the developing surface depression over Poland and is expected to move northward across Poland as a warm front. Cold air slowly advances from the W during the evening/night hours. The warm sector, which covers most parts of Poland, is characterized by a warm boundary-layer with dewpoints near 20°C in vicinity of the frontal zones. Shear along the warm front and next to the depression's center should increase during the day with locally up to 20 m/s low-level shear and 0-1 km storm-relative helicity values of more than 300 m^2/s^2. LCL heights should be low near and just north of the warm front. Each thunderstorm that develops near this boundary has a high chance to acquire strong low-level rotation and produce strong tornadoes. During the late afternoon hours, the low-level wind field increases even further with readings of more than 25 m/s at 850 hPa. This not only increases the risk of rotating storms, but enhances the risk for damaging wind gusts as well. Numerical models suggest that storms may cluster across central and/or northern Poland and subsequently move northeastward into Lithuania and further northeastward. If such a cluster develops, it could well develop into a bow echo with widespread damaging winds. In comparison with the Extended Forecast issued earlier, we have upgraded parts of the area to a level 3 because a regional tornado outbreak appears very well possible in addition to damaging wind gusts.

Both shear and instability values are also impressive over SW Poland, but directional shear should be much weaker. This should help to abate the tornado risk, but storms moving off the hodograph could still produce tornadoes. The main risk will be a severe-damaging wind gust and isolated large hail threat as shear at the lowest 3km increases to 25m/s.





Horas despues actualizaron...

Forecast Update
Valid: Fri 15 Aug 2008 18:00 to Sat 16 Aug 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 15 Aug 2008 18:09
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

+ + + TORNADO OUTBREAK CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL POLAND AND POSSIBLY SLOVAKIA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING + + +

DISCUSSION

S and E Poland... Slovakia... E Czech Rep...

A line of supercells with reported tornadoes are ongoing across a line from just west of Warsaw to Krakow to Bratislava. These are expected to continue during the evening while moving eastward. As a southerly nocturnal low-level jet sets in across the Pannonian Plain and the Carpates, and the pressure gradient increases due to pressure falls east of the Alps, low-level shear profiles are expected to improve further. A continued threat of supercells producing (strong) tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds is forecast. Storms may weaken no sooner than well after midnight.

E Austria... W and C Hungary

Strong storm-relative helicity of around 400 m2/s2 is expected to develop across extreme eastern Austria and the western half Hungary during the evening in reponse to pressure falls over Hungary. Storm that develop in this environment would have a high probability of producing tornadoes, also given the moist boundary layer that is present, with expceptionally high dew points of 23 C observed. The most important question is whether and if yes, how many storms will develop. Currently, we anticipate that isolated to scattered storms will develop, possibly clustering into a small MCS. An attendant threat of tornadoes, including strong tornadoes, as well as large hail and damaging gusts is forecast. Only after midnight should the boundary layer cool sufficiently to mitigate the severe threat.

* * * A major severe-weather outbreak is forecast for parts of the central Mediterranean, the northwestern Balkans and parts of central Europe. Severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and significant hail can be expected. * * *

SYNOPSIS

A very dynamic upper-level trough, centered over France during the morning hours, is on its way to the east, approaching the Alpine region during the late afternoon/evening hours as a negative tilted and still strengthening upper trough. This feature dictates the weather over most parts of Europe as intense WAA downstream of this system spreads northeastwards, while much cooler and more stable air infiltrates NW Europe. Between both airmasses, a quasi-stationary and undulating frontal boundary has established during the past days. This boundary changes into a cold front over central Italy, Austria, the Czech Republic, and SW Poland, and into a northward advancing warm front over central and northern Poland. Very hot conditions continue over the central Mediterranean, eastern and southeastern Europe.

...Poland...

The aforementioned wavy frontal boundary will get modified by the developing surface depression over Poland and is expected to move northward across Poland as a warm front. Cold air slowly advances from the W during the evening/night hours. The warm sector, which covers most parts of Poland, is characterized by a warm boundary-layer with dewpoints near 20°C in vicinity of the frontal zones. Shear along the warm front and next to the depression's center should increase during the day with locally up to 20 m/s low-level shear and 0-1 km storm-relative helicity values of more than 300 m^2/s^2. LCL heights should be low near and just north of the warm front. Each thunderstorm that develops near this boundary has a high chance to acquire strong low-level rotation and produce strong tornadoes. During the late afternoon hours, the low-level wind field increases even further with readings of more than 25 m/s at 850 hPa. This not only increases the risk of rotating storms, but enhances the risk for damaging wind gusts as well. Numerical models suggest that storms may cluster across central and/or northern Poland and subsequently move northeastward into Lithuania and further northeastward. If such a cluster develops, it could well develop into a bow echo with widespread damaging winds. In comparison with the Extended Forecast issued earlier, we have upgraded parts of the area to a level 3 because a regional tornado outbreak appears very well possible in addition to damaging wind gusts.

Both shear and instability values are also impressive over SW Poland, but directional shear should be much weaker. This should help to abate the tornado risk, but storms moving off the hodograph could still produce tornadoes. The main risk will be a severe-damaging wind gust and isolated large hail threat as shear at the lowest 3km increases to 25m/s.





Horas despues actualizaron...

Forecast Update
Valid: Fri 15 Aug 2008 18:00 to Sat 16 Aug 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 15 Aug 2008 18:09
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

+ + + TORNADO OUTBREAK CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL POLAND AND POSSIBLY SLOVAKIA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING + + +

DISCUSSION

S and E Poland... Slovakia... E Czech Rep...

A line of supercells with reported tornadoes are ongoing across a line from just west of Warsaw to Krakow to Bratislava. These are expected to continue during the evening while moving eastward. As a southerly nocturnal low-level jet sets in across the Pannonian Plain and the Carpates, and the pressure gradient increases due to pressure falls east of the Alps, low-level shear profiles are expected to improve further. A continued threat of supercells producing (strong) tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds is forecast. Storms may weaken no sooner than well after midnight.

E Austria... W and C Hungary

Strong storm-relative helicity of around 400 m2/s2 is expected to develop across extreme eastern Austria and the western half Hungary during the evening in reponse to pressure falls over Hungary. Storm that develop in this environment would have a high probability of producing tornadoes, also given the moist boundary layer that is present, with expceptionally high dew points of 23 C observed. The most important question is whether and if yes, how many storms will develop. Currently, we anticipate that isolated to scattered storms will develop, possibly clustering into a small MCS. An attendant threat of tornadoes, including strong tornadoes, as well as large hail and damaging gusts is forecast. Only after midnight should the boundary layer cool sufficiently to mitigate the severe threat.

traduccion

Uno de los principales tipo de condiciones meteorológicas severas brote se prevé para las partes del Mediterráneo central, los Balcanes y el noroeste de Europa central. Tormentas con tornados, ráfagas de viento perjudicial significativo y granizo se puede esperar. * * *

SINOPSIS

Una dinámica muy superior a nivel de comedero, centrada en Francia durante las horas de la mañana, está en camino hacia el este, acercarse a la región de los Alpes durante la tarde / noche como una negativa inclina y todavía superior a través de fortalecimiento. Esta función determina el tiempo durante la mayor parte de Europa tan intensa WAA aguas abajo de este sistema se extiende northeastwards, si bien es mucho más fresco y más estable del aire se infiltra NW Europa. Entre tanto airmasses, un cuasi-estacionaria y ondulado frontal frontera ha establecido durante los últimos días. Este límite se convierte en un frente frío sobre el centro de Italia, Austria, la República Checa, Polonia y SW, y hacia el norte en un frente cálido en la promoción de más de centro y norte de Polonia. Muy caliente condiciones continuará en el Mediterráneo central, oriental y el sudeste de Europa.

... Polonia ...

La mencionada ondulado frontal frontera obtendrá modificado por el desarrollo de la depresión sobre la superficie Polonia y se espera que mueva hacia el norte a través de Polonia como un frente cálido. El aire frío avanza lentamente desde el W durante la tarde / noche horas. La cálida sector, que abarca la mayor parte de Polonia, se caracteriza por una frontera caliente en capa dewpoints con cerca de 20 ° C en las proximidades de zonas frontales. Cortante a lo largo del frente cálido y próximo a la depresión del centro debería aumentar durante el día a nivel local con hasta 20 m / s bajo nivel de cizalla y 0-1 kilometros tormenta-helicidad relativa valores de más de 300 m ^ 2 / s ^ 2. NMC alturas debería ser baja cerca y justo al norte del frente cálido. Cada tormenta que se desarrolla cerca de esta frontera tiene una gran oportunidad de adquirir fuerte bajo nivel de rotación y producir fuertes tornados. Durante la tarde horas, el bajo nivel de campo del viento aumenta aún más con las lecturas de más de 25 m / s a 850 hPa. Esto no sólo aumenta el riesgo de la rotación de las tormentas, pero aumenta el riesgo de dañar ráfagas de viento también. Los modelos numéricos indican que las tormentas de Mayo el grupo a través de centrales y / o el norte de Polonia y, posteriormente, pasar northeastward en Lituania y más northeastward. Si ese grupo desarrolla, que bien podría convertirse en un arco amplio eco con vientos perjudiciales. En comparación con la extensión de previsiones emitidas con anterioridad, hemos acondicionados de la zona a un nivel 3 de regional porque un tornado brote parece muy bien posible, además de rachas de viento perjudicial.

Ambos cizalla y la inestabilidad valores también son impresionantes más de SW Polonia, pero la dirección de cizalla debe ser mucho más débil. Esto debería ayudar a reducir el riesgo del tornado, pero las tormentas se desplazan fuera de la hodograph todavía podría producir tornados. El principal riesgo será un grave perjudiciales ráfaga de viento y granizo grande aislados como amenaza cortante al menor a 3 kilometros aumentos 25m / s.

 
Increible!!!!!

 >-<

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