Ojo al dato, que esta tarde va a haber meneo. Ya lo he visto esta mañana a primera hora con el GFS... Adjunto mapa de ESTOFEX y su previsión:
...Spain...
Dewpoints observed across this area look reasonably well predicted by GFS and it seems the model is trustworthy in the development of MLCAPEs locally exceeding 500 J/kg. Moreover, satellite imagery revelas a dry slot over the area with little middle and high cloud cover, so that diurnally driven heating might apply. Predicted wind shear values for 0-3 and 0-6 km are still reasonable for the development of organised convection, including the possiblity of supercells. Due to the trough development close to the surface, slightly enhaced SREH values are simulated ( around 100-150 J/kg in 0-3 km layer). Forcing seems to be rather weak, probably only in the form of local convergence and therefore, only isolated to scattered storms are predicted. Large hail or severe wind gusts might occur especially in case supercells manage to develop and a Level 1 is warranted.
Resumiendo, hay posibilidad de que se formen supercélulas, y que ocurran granizadas con pedrisco de tamaño considerable, especialmente en el caso de tormentas organizadas.
Tema: Primeros tormentones primaverales en la Península. (Leído 1656 veces)