Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de situaciones meteorológicas => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Diciembre 22, 2012, 19:12:15 pm
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Tras la tormenta invernal que ha azotado a los estados del norte y del centro, con nieve y tornados respectivamente, de cara al día de Navidad se espera el desarrollo de otra baja presión, a baja latitud, que podría traer asociado un episodio de tiempo severo por tormentas y tornados... Habrá que seguirlo a ver.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5837/sw25a_oid5.png)
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 220958
SPC AC 220958
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2012
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MOVE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SRN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY/DAY 4. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS AND IN THE
LOWER MS VALLEY FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE EXIT
REGION OF A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND WIDESPREAD ASCENT. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
MAY ENABLE A SQUALL-LINE TO ORGANIZE AND QUICKLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. IT
APPEARS THAT A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A BROAD CORRIDOR FROM SE TX
EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS LA...MS ...AL AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.
AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY/DAY 5...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. AN
ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT COULD OCCUR IF A LINEAR MCS OR A CLUSTER OF
SEVERE STORMS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT ISSUE AN OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE
CAROLINAS UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS A BIT GREATER CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BY LATE IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD...THE
MODELS MOVE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL U.S. THIS
COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER TO MID MS
VALLEY AGAIN ON FRIDAY/DAY 7 BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS
RANGE.
..BROYLES.. 12/22/2012
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Reed Timmer y su equipo, que ya están alerta para esta situación, siguen apostando por una situación de tiempo severo con alta probabilidad de formación de tornados...
Cito a Reed:
Severe storms and tornadoes likely starting early Christmas day in southeast Texas through the Gulf Coast Region and possibly through southeast U.S. esp Florida by Dec 26..
Winter storm from Oklahoma east to the Ohio River Valley and interior Northeast is likely is well on Christmas and day after. I'm going to chase this solo in a rental car if I have to.
Strong low pressure area is expected to intensify in north Texas and track east through the central U.S. before lifting northeast toward New England by the 26th. Based on the last few model runs, this system has more instability in the warm sector and just as strong if not stronger low-level wind shear. The only reason I'm not saying a tornado outbreak is likely in the extreme southern U.S. is because I'm well aware that I tend to get a little aggressive in my wording from time to time in my posts on severe weather forecasts... it sure isn't easy holding back on this one. Stay tuned for updates.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6959/165002_10151327958674169_1265317312_n_cel4.png)
Anoche, mi amiga Cheryl, de la oficina de Norman, Oklahoma, me comentó que esperan nieve... cosa poco habitual.
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El episodio comienza a iniciarse con esa banda nubosa sobre la que se formará una borrasca.-
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Vaya situación más interesante .
grácias Pedro por el repor. :D1
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Las probabilidades de que se produzca un outbreak tornádico van aumentando... ::) Diversos medios de comunicación americanos se van haciendo eco de forma cada vez más importante.
SPC AC 240653
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LA...SCNTRL MS
AND WCNTRL AL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY...ERN GULF COAST STATES AND SRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS...
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SETTING UP FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR
PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...
...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY. A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET
IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EWD
OVER A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION...MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CNTRL TX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH
COINCIDES WITH A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX
COASTAL PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY AT DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MOVING ENEWD FROM SE TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AROUND MIDDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT VICKSBURG AND JACKSON MS ON TUESDAY GRADUALLY
DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER
TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS
0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHES 60 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF
350 TO 400 M2/S2 SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL MS INTO WCNTRL AL BY TUESDAY EVENING.
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY MCS THAT
BECOMES WELL-ORGANIZED COULD CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON...LONG TRACK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR
WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH
LINE-SEGMENTS THAT ORGANIZE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. A THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT POSSIBLE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN
THE LINE. IF A WELL-DEVELOPED AND FAST MOVING SQUALL-LINE
ORGANIZES...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME SUBSTANTIAL.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GULF
COAST STATES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 12/24/2012
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
(:B) (:B) (:B) (:B) (:B) Podría tratarse de una oleada extraordinaria para las fechas en que estamos... ::)
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No parece una baja en altura excesivamente llamativa, pero la baja en superficie asociada a la primera, recogerá y aportará humedad procedente del GOM...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5961/00zgfs500mbHGHTNA042_ooi6.gif)
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En los estados del sureste ya hay una buena banda de tormentas... pero creo que no se corresponden con esta situación ::)
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8298/GOES19012012359oLdlUY_hxh1.jpg)
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Ya la tienen liada, señores... :o :o :o :o
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/897/GOES11012012360N3d2Th_ohh7.jpg)
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Además, condiciones de tiempo invernal en Oklahoma, con nieve... cosa poco usual en el área,,,
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 250832Z - 251230Z
SUMMARY...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACTS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN
DEVELOP WITH ONLY SMALL ICE ACCUMULATION.
DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA
VIA ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW /AS EVIDENT IN KTLX 88-D VWP DATA/. AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WAS PROVIDING FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND RESULTING IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX PRECIP TYPES. FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW RATES WILL BE LOW THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE ONLY SLOWLY INCREASES. HOWEVER...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ON ROADWAYS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER SUNRISE...SLEET MAY
MIX WITH SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
OCCURS AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES HEAVIER.
..LEITMAN.. 12/25/2012
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34689926 35049947 35699940 36289885 36409816 36439732
36479686 36349657 35899631 35119626 34819638 34569688
34509742 34459799 34559871 34689926
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Preciosa e increíble imagen captada por el satélite MetOp-A a las 16:22 UTC de esta tarde, mostrando el inicio del episodio, con un impresionante sistema de tormentas afectando a los estados centrales, dentro de aquellos más meridionales, de EEUU :o :o :o :o :o
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5439/usator_xye1.jpg)
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Merece la pena citar a Marko Korosec....
holy shit WOW!!!! Monster hook with likelihood of debris ball just N of MvNeill, MS right now!
(https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/66783_487326337986812_2008422759_n.jpg)
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Cito a Reed Timmer:
Likely tornado on the ground about to cross I-59 south of Poplarville, LA! Seeks shelter immediately!
(https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/581634_10151332702694169_1269154057_n.png)
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Dos líneas principales en estos momentos, y continuamente activándose avisos por tornados... Menudas horas les esperan a estos estados del sur y sureste... Y ojo al movimiento hacia el noreste de la borrasca a la que van asociados estos sistemas de tormentas ::)
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3646/oleada7_jct3.jpg)
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El sistema de tormentas ya ha barrido el estado de Luisiana, Misisipi, y lo está haciendo sobre Alabama y norte de Florida :o :o :o :o
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3951/euusto_bys4.jpg)
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28 reportes de tornado en la jornada de ayer:
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3618/reports1_sfx0.jpg)
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Comienzan a llegar vídeos de los tornados... En este caso, Alabama:
Tornados y Tormentas en EEUU en la Navidad 2012 (25/12/12) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7eWYdqAU4M#ws)
Tornado In Mobile, Alabama on Christmas Day (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m76tKgWXblY#ws)
Hace tan solo 5 días, se producía uno en la misma ciudad: Mobile :-X
Tornado Tears Through Mobile, Alabama (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sk_-OIDq9ic#ws)
Misisipi:
Christmas Day Miracle - Tornado knocks down trees in front and behind a small car - lucky family! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J_LG6NcQPk#ws)
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Impresionante imagen proporcionada por el SUOMI-NPP a las 07:58 UTC, mostrando la superficie nevada sobre la región entre los estados de Texas y Oklahoma, con forma de cola de escorpión. Vía: Scott Bachmeier @CIMSS_Satellite
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1630/suominpp_pky5.jpg)
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Y en la actualidad, ojo a Carolina del Norte. El radar está detectando la existencia de varias supercélulas y señales de tornado...
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 699
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM EST WED DEC 26 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
500 PM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF FLORENCE SOUTH
CAROLINA TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN NC AND EASTERN SC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES INLAND RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SURFACE
BASED ACTIVITY. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...MOVING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.
STRONG VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.
...PETERS/EDWARDS
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Y la oleada de tornados tenderá a convertirse en tormenta de nieve...
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/winter-weather (http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/winter-weather)
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Reed Timmer describe muy bien las zonas con los dos diferentes tipos de fenomenología adversa actual:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A_EJFz6CMAAGG-X.png)
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Este vídeo es realmente bueno.............. del tornado pasando por la ciudad de Mobile en Alabama, el que comentábamos esta mañana...
Walgreens Surveillance Video of Mobile Alabama Tornado Havoc (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mulcOnyqSt8#)
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La peor oleada de tornados en Navidad para los USA (http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/72-tiempo-severo-en-el-mundo/3102-la-peor-oleada-de-tornados-en-navidad-para-los-usa.html)
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Se estarán moviendo la NIÑA o condiciones de ENSO NEUTRO más negativas en el Pacífico Central ???
Esto no huele bien.....estas condiciones tan cálidas en épocas frías........