Daniele, the image that you have attached is amazing
Congratulations for the ESTOFEX Team, which has been making discussions about our Mediterranean Storm... The last update:
****** Tropical storm 01M/99L ******
SUMMARY: 8th NOV. 2011, 1800 UTC
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LOCATION...42.8N 6.5E
ABOUT 61 NM...112 KM SE OF MARSEILLE
ABOUT 111 NM...205 KM WNW OF AJACCIO, CORSICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...52 MPH...83 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...QUASI-STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... Around 1000 hPa
UPDATE 18 UTC: Both shear and dry air seem to have taken their toll on 01M/99L. Latest HVIS data indicated a tilted vortex with the LLCC somewhat displaced to the SW (probably forced by modest NW/W-erly shear at higher levels). Current thinking is that if any warm-core structure is present, it will be a tilted one. Nevertheless, latest SAB update indicated another increase in strength and latest ASCAT data reveals 40-45 kt in the northern quadrant (some arrows not contaminated by ongoing DMC). The question arises, if this is not more typical for a subtropical feature due to ongoing modest shear. The system also has looped during the past few hours with only marginal movement to the north. A band of intense convection affects parts of SE-France right now and heavy to isolated excessive rainfall will be an imminent risk, next to an isolated tornado event with augmented LL shear! Further bands with heavy rainfall may affect SE-France/W-Ligurian coast during the night as the cyclone remains just offshore. Future intensity signals are mixed for 01M, as shear abates somewhat but it remains atop marginal cooler SSTs and it has drier air to the west to work with. Soundings upstream also confirm a slow warming trend at mid-levels. We would not be surprised to see a more pulsating activity of DMC next to the center/along the bands during the next 12-24h, but overall signs are more against another intense flare-up of persistent DMC. Models still show a stalling or westward moving system while weakening ahead of another upper trough over the far W-Atlantic.
A partir de estos datos, parece que el bichito está recuperando algo de fuelle
Ese señor, el tal Turk que firma ese boletín, Vigorro, me ha mandado un email esta tarde, en respuesta al que le mandé yo antesdeayer diciéndoles que pusieran el ojo en la depresión mediterránea que ha dado origen a este "engendro"
En el mail, me comenta que efectivamente, se pusieron manos a la obra con ella
Tema: Ciclón (sub)tropical en el Mediterráneo Occidental, MEDICANE, noviembre 2011 (Leído 5525 veces)