921
wtxs32 pgtw 180900
msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
ref/a/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi/172221z Nov 07//
ampn/tropical cyclone formation alert//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 04s warning nr 001
   02 active tropical cyclones in southio
   Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
    ---
   warning position:
   180600z --- near 7.9s 76.5e
     movement past six hours - 155 degrees at 07 kts
     position accurate to within 060 nm
     position based on center located by satellite
   present wind distribution:
   Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   repeat posit: 7.9s 76.5e
    ---
   forecasts:
   12 hrs, valid at:
   181800z --- 8.6s 77.1e
   Max sustained winds - 040 kt, gusts 050 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 034 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
                            055 nm southeast quadrant
                            050 nm southwest quadrant
                            050 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 24 hr posit: 140 deg/ 03 kts
    ---
   24 hrs, valid at:
   190600z --- 9.1s 77.5e
   Max sustained winds - 045 kt, gusts 055 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 034 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
                            060 nm southeast quadrant
                            055 nm southwest quadrant
                            055 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 36 hr posit: 160 deg/ 03 kts
    ---
   36 hrs, valid at:
   191800z --- 9.7s 77.7e
   Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 034 kt winds - 060 nm northeast quadrant
                            065 nm southeast quadrant
                            065 nm southwest quadrant
                            060 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 48 hr posit: 190 deg/ 03 kts
    ---
   extended outlook:
   48 hrs, valid at:
   200600z --- 10.3s 77.6e
   Max sustained winds - 060 kt, gusts 075 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 050 kt winds - 035 nm northeast quadrant
                            035 nm southeast quadrant
                            035 nm southwest quadrant
                            035 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
                            075 nm southeast quadrant
                            075 nm southwest quadrant
                            070 nm northwest quadrant
    ---
remarks:

180900z position near 8.1s 76.6e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 04s (noname), located approximately 240 nm
east of Diego Garcia, has tracked south-southeastward at 07 knots
over the past 06 hours. Recent Dvorak T-numbers from knes and pgtw
and a 180600z CIRA multiplatform satellite intensity estimate indi-
cate that the maximum sustained winds associated with tc 04s have
reached 35 knots. The current position is based on a 180530z pgtw
satellite fix and recent microwave satellite imagery. Tc 04s is
tracking along the southwestern periphery of a near-equatorial
steering ridge to the northeast. This general motion is expected
to continue through the forecast period, with a slight turn to the
west beginning around tau 36 as the storm encounters the competing
steering influence of subtropical ridging to the south.

The avail-
able numerical model guidance depicts strong interaction between
tc 04s and tc 03s( LEE-ARIEL) to the southeast. Given that the current separa-
tion distance between the two cyclones is about 700 nm and expected
to decrease, binary interaction between the systems is possible.
However, tc 04s is expected to become the stronger system over
time and the effect of a weaker tc 03s on the track of tc 04s
therefore appears to be over-emphasized in the current model
forecasts. NOGAPS depicts a clear separation between the two
circulations through much of the forecast period and also depicts
tc 04s as the dominant circulation.

 Therefore, the current fore-
cast is close to the NOGAPS solution. This warning supersedes and
cancels ref a, navpacmetoccen 172221z Nov 07 tropical cyclone
formation alert (wtxs21 pgtw 172230). Maximum significant wave
height at 180600z is 16 feet. Next warnings at 182100z and 190900z.
Refer to tropical cyclone 03s (lee-ariel) warnings (wtxs31 pgtw)
for twelve-hourly updates.//

35kts - 996mb

Este es el que iba hacia Madagascar ¿no? Me pierdo un poco entre tanto ciclón tropical en el hemisferio sur :</O

55kts--982mb

 :O* 55kts - 985mb

55kts--985mb

 Vendredi, 23 novembre 2007, 10h19 (UTC+4)

   


BULLETIN DU 23 NOVEMBRE A 10H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN




TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BONGWE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 991 HPA.
POSITION LE 23 NOVEMBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES:  13.7 SUD / 68.8 EST
(TREIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE-HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES:    1600 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT:                         OUEST-NORD-OUEST A 9 KM/H.




VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 13.5S/65.9E
SE DISSIPANT, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 14.2S/62.8E
SE DISSIPANT, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.8S/59.8E

se dirige a madagascar?