Ahí sigue el amigo Fred.



<a href="http://picasaweb.google.es/lh/photo/vw_nsQhs8mc5bJ3rIoZTBw?feat=embedwebsite"><img src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/_5k66C2DoE0E/SqkqzBX04DI/AAAAAAAAC20/H9yDXmIgqpQ/s800/vis-l.jpg" /></a>



000
WTNT32 KNHC 101434
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009

...FRED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH 100 MPH WINDS...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST OR ABOUT 740 MILES...
1185 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. FRED IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.8N 35.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Adjunto captura del Google con la distancia que separa a FRED de Cabo Verde y de Canarias

Los modelos no parecen llevarla a EUROPA, sino más bien hacia mar abierto

sigue bajando de intensidad....su futuro esta escrito ya....

000
WTNT42 KNHC 110240
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
1100 PM AST THU SEP 10 2009

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE STRUCTURE OF FRED. A
COMPARISON OF THE 37- AND 85-GHZ CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM A 2212 UTC
TRMM PASS INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION IS
DISPLACED ABOUT 20-25 N MI NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THE
MID-LEVEL REMNANT EYEWALL IS COMPLETELY ERODED ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE. THIS PATTERN HAS YIELDED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS FRED DUE TO 20-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
MARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AFTER THAT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN
THE INTENSITY MODELS...AND THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR FRED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY 24 HOURS AND ULTIMATELY A REMNANT LOW
BY DAY 4.

THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND FRED ARE BEGINNING TO COLLAPSE AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350 DEGREES AT 3 KT.  ONLY A SLOW
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS FRED TEMPORARILY RESPONDS TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
NORTH.  ONCE IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT DOES NOT
SHOW AS MUCH OF AN EASTWARD BEND AS THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.
STILL...THE MOTION WILL BE SLOW...AND FRED COULD MEANDER A BIT
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE
ACCELERATING NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/0300Z 17.4N  35.1W    75 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.7N  35.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.9N  34.9W    55 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 18.0N  34.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 18.3N  34.7W    35 KT
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 20.0N  36.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 21.5N  41.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/0000Z 23.0N  45.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Como estaba previsto Fred se ha ido deteriorando desde ayer y ya es un huracán de Cat.1, creo que por poco tiempo.

La cizalladura  del SW en capa altas de Fred es bestial y también como comente ayer el aire seco en la parte occidental del sistema la esta debilitando aún mas.

Buf!!! Según el mapa de cizalladura del CIMSS, FRED está soportando valores de 40 y 50 KT Está al borde de la corriente en chorro subtropical. De ahí a que si mantuviese su entidad como ciclón tropical, éste se vería transportado al noreste, pero que al quedar relegado a un remolino de nubes bajas, se verá influenciado por la corriente general del este que sopla en niveles bajos (vientos alisios). De ahí el brusco giro pronosticado por el CNH.

Otra característica a destacar es el excelente flujo de salida que mantiene en niveles altos De ahí que todavía esté resistiendo y planteando batalla frente a esa cizalladura infernal.

Segun esta página GFDL tambien :DDD

Mejor me..... Al menos ya hay unas mini posibilidades..