000WTPZ42 KNHC 312035TCDEP2Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 2NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017400 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017The convective cloud pattern of the depression has improved a littleduring the past several hours. However, partial ASCAT overpassesand visible satellite imagery suggest the circulation is elongatedeast-to-west with the center likely near the western edge of thecentral convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFBand SAB have increased to 30 kt, so that will be the initialintensity.The cyclone has been moving erratically, with the initial motion asomewhat uncertain 045/2. A mid- to upper-level trough seen inwater vapor imagery over northern Mexico is expected to steer thecyclone slowly northeastward for the next 36-48 h. After that,there is still divergence between the models on whether thecyclone, or its remnants, will continue northeastward over Mexicoor stall near or south of the Mexican coast. A major change sincethe previous advisory is that the ECMWF now calls for the system tomove northeastward and make landfall in Mexico in about 24 h, whichis faster than some of the other models. However, the UKMET andthe UK Ensemble mean still show a westward turn after 36 h or so.Given the change in the ECMWF, the new track forecast is shiftednorth of the previous track and now calls for the center to moveonto the Mexican coast in 36-48 h. Additional changes in theforecast track may be needed tonight if current model trendscontinue.The intensity forecast is low confidence. The environment ofmoderate shear and warm water should allow gradual strengthening.This is reflected in the intensity guidance and forecast, whichcall for the system to become a tropical storm in about 24 h.However, the current structure and the possibility of landinteraction should limit intensification, and an alternativescenario based on the faster ECMWF landfall is that the system doesnot become a tropical storm before reaching the Mexican coast.The new forecast track requires significant changes in the latterpart of the intensity forecast, which now calls for the cyclone todissipate by 120 h due to passage over Mexico. It should be notedthat if the center moves farther inland than currently forecast itshould result in earlier dissipation.Heavy rains and freshwater flooding are likely to be the biggestthreats from this system even if it makes landfall as a tropicalstorm. A Tropical Storm Warning could be required for portions ofthe coast of Mexico tonight.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 31/2100Z 13.9N 97.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 14.2N 97.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.7N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 15.1N 96.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 15.7N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 03/1800Z 16.0N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 04/1800Z 16.0N 97.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Beven
000WTPZ32 KNHC 010531TCPEP2BULLETINTropical Depression Two-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3ANWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017100 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO...SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...14.8N 97.2WABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICOABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:None.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* The Pacific coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Puerto EscondidoA Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area, in this case withinthe next 24 hours.For storm information specific to your area, please monitor productsissued by your national meteorological service.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two-Ewas located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 97.2 West. Thedepression is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), andthis general motion is expected to continue during the next coupleof days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cycloneis expected to move inland across the state of Oaxaca later today.Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with highergusts. Some strengthening is expected, and the depression isforecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast ofMexico.The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfallaccumulations of 8 to 12 inches across the Mexican state of Oaxacawith isolated maximum totals of 20 inches possible. This rainfallis likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within thewarning area later this morning.NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.$$Forecaster Avila