WTPN21 PGTW 141930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7N 106.1W TO 16.0N 111.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 141800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7N 106.7W.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 14 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AROUND
A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MUSHER  
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