000WTPZ43 KNHC 192039TCDEP3TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132007200 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007THE DEPRESSION LOOKS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AS THECLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM. HOWEVER....A SMALL BURST OF NEWCONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 30 KT AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND TAFBRESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. THEENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS RATHER HOSTILE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENINGIN THE SHORT-TERM AS CONVECTION COULD INCREASE WITH THE DIURNALMAXIMUM LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...STABLEAIR...COOLER SST...AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCEWEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72HOURS AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINSUNCHANGED WITH THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION FORECAST TO WEAKENAS A LARGE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE COASTOF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN WEAK STEERINGCURRENTS AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DECELERATE. AFTER 48HOURS...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTHTO INDUCE A NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION. THE NEW TRACKFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUTHAS BEEN MOVED WESTWARD AT 48 AND 72 HOURS.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 19/2100Z 17.4N 128.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 17.4N 129.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 17.1N 130.6W 30 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 17.4N 130.6W 25 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 18.8N 128.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER BROWN