Durante la tarde LEE ha perdido el ojo. Y el caso es que el modelo HWRF preveía esto en su salida de las 00 UTC de hoy... y lo que también prevé es que va a volver a recuperarlo en las próximas horas, antes de empezar a interaccionar con MARIA en su cambio hacia los westerlies...
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 33NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017500 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017Lee's cloud pattern has continued to become better organized thisevening. The eye has cleared out and has warmed to nearly 10degrees Celsius, and the eye wall cloud tops have cooled to-63 degrees Celsius. The initial intensity is increased modestly to85 kt and is based on a blend of the subjective and objective DvorakT-numbers. It is worth noting that the ADT adjusted raw T-numberyields an estimated intensity of 97 kt based on an eye scene-type.The previously noted southeasterly shear undercutting the diffluentflow aloft has certainly diminished and should remain low for thenext 48 hours or so. During this initial period, Lee could get alittle stronger as indicated in the HWRF hurricane model and theDecay-SHIPS. Afterward, increasing vertical shear, primarily due tothe outflow generated by Maria, and decreasing sea surfacetemperatures should induce a gradual weakening trend as the cyclonemoves into a high latitude baroclinic zone and ultimately becomes anextratropical cyclone in 4 days. The intensity forecast isbasically an update of 6 hours ago, and follows an average of theIVCN and Florida State Superensemble guidance.The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/9 kt. Thecyclone is expected to continue moving within the easterly mid-levelsteering flow, produced by a relatively narrow mid-troposphericridge situated to the north, during the next 24 hours. Afterward,a combination of a broad mid- to upper-level shortwave trough movingout of the eastern Canadian Provinces and a subtropical ridgebuilding east of Lee should steer the hurricane graduallynorthwestward and northward. On day 3 and beyond, Lee is forecastto accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded in a deep-layerhigh latitude southwesterly flow downstream from the aforementionedshortwave trough. Global models and the Cyclone Phase Evolutionanalysis/forecast product show Lee become a extratropicalcyclone no later than day 4. The NHC forecast track is a littlesouth of the previous one through 48 hours, but similarthereafter, and is based on the TVCX and HCCA consensus models.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 26/0900Z 30.0N 52.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 29.9N 53.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 30.2N 55.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 30.9N 56.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 32.2N 56.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 36.9N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 44.5N 40.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP120H 01/0600Z 50.9N 22.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP$$Forecaster Roberts
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 34NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1420171100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017Lee is small but impressive hurricane this morning with awell-defined eye on visible satellite images. Satellite intensityestimates are a little higher and support an initial wind speed ofat least 90 kt. Further strengthening is possible for the next dayor so while Lee continues moving over warm waters with relativelylight shear. Most of the guidance shows Lee getting a bit stronger,and the cyclone stands some chance of becoming a major hurricanewithin the next 24 hours or so. The official forecast is raisedfrom the previous one, and is on the high side of the guidance.Weakening should begin on Thursday as shear increases and watertemperatures decrease. The small tropical cyclone should weakenfairly quickly at higher latitudes and become absorbed in a largeextratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.Lee continues moving westward at 9 kt. The hurricane shouldgradually turn to the northwest on Wednesday and to the north onThursday as it moves around a ridge over the east-central Atlantic.Thereafter, Lee is likely to accelerate to the northeast as itenters the faster mid-latitude flow. There are some speeddifferences in the models but overall not a lot of cross-trackspread. The new forecast is faster than the previous one, in thedirection of the latest HFIP corrected-consensus model.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 26/1500Z 29.9N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 30.0N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 30.6N 56.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 31.7N 56.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 33.3N 56.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 46.0N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 37NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017500 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lee has beenundergoing some cloud structural changes during the past severalhours. The eye has nearly doubled in size to 30 miles indiameter, the central pressure indicated in the CIMSS ObjectiveDvorak technique has increased a few millibars, and an earlier 2147UTC WindSAT overpass revealed a developing outer ring surroundingthe partially opened inner core. These aforementioned cloud patternalterations arguably point to an undergoing eyewall replacementcycle, and the possibility of intensification in the short term.The initial intensity of 95 kt remains above the subjectiveT-numbers, and is close to the CIMSS ADT estimated intensity. Theofficial intensity forecast reflects the possibility of Lee becominga major hurricane later today before a weakening trend commences byearly Wednesday. The global models and the FSU Cyclone PhaseEvolution product agree that Lee will maintain tropicalcharacteristics through day 3. Afterward, the guidance shows thecyclone quickly absorbed by an existing larger baroclinicsystem.The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/8kt. Lee should turn gradually northwestward later today, andgenerally northward on Thursday as the cyclone is steered by thesouthwestern peripheral flow of a subtropical ridge over theeast-central Atlantic. Through the remaining portion of theforecast, Lee is forecast to accelerate northeastward within thestrong mid-latitude southwesterly flow and ultimately dissipate in72 hours. The model guidance suite continues to trend toward thewest through the 36-hour period, and the official forecast followssuit. Beyond that time frame, the forecast is a little faster thanthe previous advisory and is nudged toward the HFIP CorrectedConsensus technique model.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 27/0900Z 30.2N 56.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 30.8N 57.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 32.1N 57.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 34.5N 56.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 37.8N 53.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 46.3N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Roberts
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 38NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1420171100 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017After an eyewall replacement overnight, satellite images indicatethat a larger clear eye has formed, with the coldest cloud-toptemperatures seen to date observed with the cyclone. Whilesubjective Dvorak estimates have been fluctuating between 90-102 kt,the latest objective estimate is 102 kt, and a 1050 UTC AMSUestimate from CIMSS is 104 kt. A blend of these data gives aninitial wind speed of 100 kt, making Lee the 5th major hurricane ofthe 2017 Atlantic season. A gradual decrease in water temperaturesshould start a weakening trend within 12-24 hours, with a fasterweakening forecast on Thursday and Friday as Lee enters a high-shearenvironment. Guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, andthe latest forecast is very close to the previous one.Lee has turned northwestward, or 315/6. The hurricane should turnto the north on Thursday and northeast by Friday while it movesaround the subtropical ridge. Lee is expected to move quite quicklyto the northeast on Friday and Saturday as it accelerates inmid-latitude flow. No significant changes were made to the previoustrack, and the new forecast lies between the ECMWF and the HFIPcorrected-consensus model. Around day 3, the cyclone should beclose to a cold front, but most of the models still show it separatefrom that feature. By day 4, all of the guidance have the systemdecaying into a trough, and that is the solution provided below.An ASCAT pass from this morning indicated that Lee has grown insize, so the initial and forecast wind radii have been modified toreflect that change.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 27/1500Z 30.6N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 31.4N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 33.0N 57.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 35.5N 55.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 46.5N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Blake
NHC Atlantic OpsCuenta verificada @NHC_Atlantic 3 hHace 3 horas #Lee becomes the 5th major #hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic season but is no threat to land. Full advisory: http://hurricanes.gov
Philip KlotzbachCuenta verificada @philklotzbach#Lee is now a major hurricane with max winds of 115 mph - the 7th Atlantic hurricane season on record with 5 Cat. 3+ hurricanes by Sep 27.
Tyler Stanfield @StanfieldTyler 6 hHace 6 horas Epic morning visible imagery from #GOES16 of near-Major Hurricane #Lee. Eyewall replacement has given way to a large 30 mile wide eye!
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 44NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1420171100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017Due to the 40 kt of belligerent northerly shear impinging on thenorthern half of the cyclone, Lee's surface circulation centerhas become partially exposed near the northwestern edge of thecloud canopy. A compromise of the subjective and objective Dvoraksatellite T-number estimates yields a reduced initial intensity of70 kt. Persistent strong northerly to northwesterly shear anddecreasing oceanic temperatures should further weaken Lee during thenext 36 hours. Afterward, the global models indicate that thesystem will become absorbed by a larger baroclinic system over thenorthern Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is similar tothe previous one, and is an average of the Decay-SHIP and LGEMmodels.The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/19 kt.The decaying cyclone is expected to continue accelerating towardthe northeast within deep-layer mid-latitude southwesterly flowuntil dissipation occurs in 48 hours. The NHC forecast follows theTVCN multi-model consensus and the ECMWF closely, and is basicallyan update of the previous track forecast.Lee's wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent 0012 UTCASCAT-B scatterometer overpass.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 29/0300Z 36.3N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 39.1N 51.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 43.2N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 47.6N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Roberts