TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

8N10W 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 50W...GOING
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W FROM 1S TO
4N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR 4N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEYOND
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT
WERE OCCURRING IN MEXICO WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 16N92W TO 18N96W
TO 22N99W TO 24N99W. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N79W
JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST AT 21/0000 UTC HAS VANISHED BY
21/0300 UTC. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS WEAK. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS FOR EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NO COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA/EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N68W
TO THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO THE
EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA BORDER NEAR 15N83W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
23N57W 21N61W 19N64W TO 18N65W IN THE WATERS JUST EAST OF
PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH 19N49W TO 16N63W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA AND NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN
70W AND 74W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. ITCZ-RELATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 76W AND 85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF
56W. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N63W TO 22N68W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N68W TO THE NORTHWESTERN TIP
OF HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N41W 28N44W 26N49W 25N53W 22N58W
20N63W TO 18N65W IN THE WATERS JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 21N53W TO 27N47W BEYOND 32N44W.
A SURFACE RIDGE STARTS AT A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
32N27W AND IT CONTINUES TO 25N39W 19N49W INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 300 NM TO 400 NM NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM
14N23W NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 8N40W...AND WITHIN 500 NM
TO 700 NM OF THE LINE FROM 8N40W 5N50W 5N55W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 34N9W
TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N22W TO 15N27W ABOUT 150 NM WEST
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW IS SOUTH OF 3N/4N MOVING FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA
EASTWARD TO 10N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AT A LEVEL DIFFERENT
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...IS ALONG
3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 50W.


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