Será AMANDA y con potencial para convertirse en el primer huracán de la temporada incluso...

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 230237
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
800 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014

The convective appearance of the depression is somewhat disheveled
this evening, as the coldest cloud tops are located north and
east of the estimated center position. The initial intensity is held
at 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. The
satellite presentation, satellite analyses from UW-CIMSS, and the
SHIPS model suggest that some southerly and westerly shear
associated with a mid/upper-level trough well to the north is
currently affecting the cyclone. During the next day or so, this
environment should support only gradual intensification. As the
trough moves away the shear should decrease, which should allow for
more strengthening later in the period while the cyclone is over
warm waters. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one through 72 hours, and has been adjusted upward toward the IVCN
intensity consensus after that time, and is close to a blend of the
SHIPS and LGEM models.

The center of the depression has been difficult to locate with
geostationary and microwave imagery. However, a blend of satellite
fixes and continuity yields an initial motion of 290/04. The cyclone
is expected to move slowly west-northwestward for the next couple of
days, as a mid-level ridge to the east weakens and the trough north
of the depression moves eastward. Through 48 hours the new official
forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is close to a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Later in the period much of the
guidance has shifted northward, with the GFS, GEFS ensemble mean,
and GFDL taking the cyclone sharply poleward by day 5 as a ridge
rebuilds to the east. The HWRF also shows a northward turn but is
slower, while the ECMWF shows a much slower motion farther to the
east of the rest of the guidance. Given the large shift in the
guidance this cycle, only small adjustments have been made to the
NHC forecast late in the period. The NHC track is close to the
previous one at days 3 and 4, and has been adjusted a little to the
north and east at day 5, but remains well south of the multi-model
consensus at that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 10.6N 107.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 10.8N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 11.1N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 11.4N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 11.6N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 11.8N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 12.0N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 12.5N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

aqui el vapor de agua

Primer bichillo de la temporada en el Pacífico este,y tiene buena pinta.Parece que no va a tocar tierra por lo que los daños serán mínimos.Se mueve por un entorno favorable para que pase a huracán,aguas calentitas y poca cizalladura,aunque le durará poco:

Habemus huracán............. el primero de la temporada, y seguro que el primero de una temporada muy activa en esta cuenca

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 241437
TCDEP1

HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014

An eye has been observed sporadically in infrared satellite imagery
during the past few hours, and recent microwave data has also
revealed a small pinhole eye in the 85-GHz channel and a 12-15 n mi
eye in TRMM radar data. Satellite classifications are still rising,
and Amanda is being initialized as a 65-kt hurricane based on Dvorak
estimates of T4.0 from SAB and the UW-CIMSS ADT.  Amanda is
intensifying rapidly, strengthening by 35 kt over the past 24 hours.

Amanda is located over very warm water and in an environment of
light vertical wind shear, and all indications are that this period
of rapid intensification is likely to continue.  The operational
SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (RII) is indicating a 60 percent
chance of a 40-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours,
which is almost 15 times higher than normal.  An experimental Joint
Hurricane Testbed version of the RII product, which includes
additional environmental variables, is showing even higher chances
of rapid intensification.  Based on this guidance, Amanda is
forecast to continue strengthening rapidly, potentially reaching the
threshold for major hurricane in about 24-36 hours.  After 48
hours, southerly vertical shear is expected to increase, which is
likely to cause Amanda's low- and mid-level circulations to
decouple.  Therefore, fast weakening is indicated toward the end of
the forecast period.  The updated NHC forecast is higher than the
previous one during the first 48 hours to account for the high
likelihood of continued rapid intensification, but it is largely
unchanged thereafter.

Amanda continues on its slow west-northwestward trek, and the
initial motion is estimated to be 290/4 kt.  A mid-level ridge
centered over Mexico should begin weakening soon, which will cause
the hurricane's forward motion to slow even further during the next
24 hours.  In about 2 days, the mid-level ridge is forecast to
restrengthen over the western Gulf of Mexico while a mid-level
trough amplifies near 130W.  This pattern change should push Amanda
northward between days 3 and 5, but the speed is still likely to be
fairly slow.  The GFS and ECMWF models are located on the right side
of the guidance envelope on this forecast cycle, and the NHC
forecast has therefore been shifted a bit to the right as well,
especially beyond 36 hours.  This track is also to the right of the
model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 11.4N 109.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 11.6N 110.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 11.9N 110.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 12.4N 111.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 13.1N 111.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 15.0N 111.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2° más intenso tan pronto en la temporada



Enviado desde mi GT-N7100

Dando la campanada y rozando la categoría 5 según el CNH...

Amanda has continued to rapidly strengthen this morning, although
the hurricane is likely near its peak intensity. The 15 n mi
diameter eye remains quite distinct in infrared and first-light
visible satellite imagery, and a solid ring of cloud tops as cold
as -75C surround the eye. Subjective classifications at 1200 UTC
from TAFB and SAB were T7.0/140 kt and T6.5/127 kt, respectively.
The ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS was T6.6/130 kt, and those values
have continued to steadily increase to T6.8/135 kt as of 1330 UTC.
A blend of these intensity estimates easily support increasing the
intensity to 135 kt, which is just below category 5 strength on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Natl Hurricane Ctr ‏@NHC_Pacific 8 min
#Amanda now strongest east Pacific May hurricane on record during the satellite era.

Genial seguimiento! Pronto empieza la temporada este año