000
WTPZ32 KNHC 011438
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BLANCA FORMS...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 104.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 021432
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

Blanca is intensifying.  Geostationary imagery shows a CDO and
prominent banding features, and a 0828Z AMSR-2 image from GCOM-W1
showed a low- and mid-level eye feature.  The latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, and the latest ADT is
T4.5/77 kt.  The initial intensity is set to 60 kt for this
advisory.  Given that Blanca has developed the inner-core features
seen in microwave imagery and the shear is now below 10 kt, the
cyclone appears to be poised for a period of rapid intensification.
The NHC forecast is near the highest guidance, showing Blanca
becoming a major hurricane tomorrow, and conditions appear favorable
for continued strengthening through 72 hours, when the SHIPS, LGEM
and FSU Superensemble all show a peak near 120 kt.  However, even
this forecast could be conservative given that the SHIPS RI index
shows a 95 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in the first 24 hours.
The shear increases while the cyclone moves over cooler waters at
days 4 and 5, which should result in steady if not rapid weakening
by the end of the forecast period.

Blanca has been moving little over the past few hours, and little
motion is expected through 36 hours while steering currents remain
weak.  By 48 hours, a slow northwestward motion should begin as a
ridge builds to the northeast of the cyclone, and a faster
northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast on days 4
and 5.  The track model guidance is in general agreement on this
scenario, but there continues to be some cycle-to-cycle variability
late in the period. The multi-model consensus has shifted to the
right again this cycle at days 4 and 5, but only minor changes were
made to the NHC track, which now lies to the west of the consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 13.1N 104.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 13.0N 104.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 12.8N 104.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 12.8N 104.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 13.3N 105.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 16.0N 107.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 19.0N 108.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 022031
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

Blanca continues to strengthen, and although there are no signs of
an eye yet in geostationary imagery, a low- to mid-level eye was
evident on an SSMIS pass from 1413Z.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB are both T4.0/65 kt, and Blanca has been upgraded to a hurricane
for this advisory.  Blanca has strengthened 20 kt in the past 12
hours and appears to be taking advantage of the favorable
environment. There isn't much new to say about the intensity
forecast, as very low shear and warm, deep ocean waters should
support rapid strengthening over the next couple of days.  The NHC
forecast follows this trend, forecasting Blanca to be a major
hurricane in about 24 hours and peak near 120 kt in 2 to 3 days,
and this could be conservative.  After 72 hours, the cyclone should
begin weakening as it moves over much cooler waters and the shear
increases.  The NHC forecast is close to the SHIPS and LGEM models
through the period.

The tropical cyclone is still stationary, and little net motion is
expected for the next 36 hours while steering currents remain weak.
After that time, a ridge will build over Mexico to the northeast of
Blanca, which should impart a northwestward track on days 2 and 3,
with the cyclone turning more toward the north-northwest at days 4
and 5.  The spread of the track guidance increases markedly by day
5.  The GFS, GEFS mean, HWRF, and GFDL are faster and farther to the
right, showing a track into the Gulf of California.  On the other
side of the guidance, the ECMWF and especially the UKMET are much
slower and farther to the left, keeping the center of Blanca
southwest of the Baja California peninsula.  The NHC forecast has
been adjusted a little to the east at days 4 and 5 and now is very
close to the TVCE multi-model consensus.  Note that it is too soon
to determine what impacts Blanca will have on the Baja California
peninsula, as 5-day track forecast errors average about 170 miles in
the east Pacific.

Blanca marks the earliest formation of the second hurricane in the
eastern North Pacific basin since reliable records began in 1971.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 13.1N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 12.9N 104.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 14.0N 105.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 16.8N 107.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 20.0N 109.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 23.0N 110.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 030857
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
400 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

Satellite data indicate that Blanca continues to rapidly
strengthen as a small eye has become apparent during the past
couple of hours.  This is consistent with earlier microwave data
that revealed a small pinhole eye, however there has been no recent
microwave imagery to examine the current inner-core structure.
Dvorak Data T-numbers were 5.0 or 90 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but
with the recent satellite trends, the initial intensity is set at 95
kt. This is an increase in intensity of more than 40 kt over the
past 24 hour period.

Rapid intensification is forecast to continue during the next 24
hours while Blanca remains over very warm water and in a low shear
environment.  The statistical-dynamical models (SHIPS, LGEM,
and Florida State Superensemble) continue to show significant
intensification during the next day or so, and all of these models
bring Blanca to major hurricane status very soon. The official
forecast is very close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance during the first
2 to 3 days.  After 72 hours, increasing southerly wind shear and
cooler waters are expected to cause fairly quick weakening as
Blanca approaches the Baja California peninsula.

Blanca has been nearly stationary overnight.  Little motion is
expected today, but a north-northwestward motion is forecast to
begin on Thursday when a mid-level ridge builds to the northeast
of the hurricane.  Blanca is expected to accelerate north-
northwestward in south-southeasterly flow between the aforementioned
ridge and a mid-level trough off the west coast of California.  The
track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there
remains some differences in the forward speed of the hurricane.  The
GFS remains the fastest of the dynamical models, while the ECMWF is
the slowest.  The NHC forecast is again close to the previous
advisory and near the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 12.6N 104.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 12.5N 104.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 12.9N 104.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 13.7N 105.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 15.1N 106.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 18.1N 108.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 21.1N 109.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 24.0N 110.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown