Después de que la actividad y organización de este sistema decayera ayer, se ha recuperado y ahora muestra un 80% de probabilidades de convertirse en un ciclón tropical... BUD está a tiro de piedra!

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

Efectivamente.............

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210237
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO...EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.3N 99.6W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Y probablemente terminará siendo BUD ...

Esta depresión tropical no se ha mostrado mejor organizada desde yaer, según el CNH, y también deducción que es fácil de hacer viendo la última imagen satelital visible que muestra al ára de baja presión rodeada de una poderosa convección, pero sin que se haya compactado o tornado mejor organizada.



LAs previsiones siguen intactas en cuanto a la posibilidad de que de este sistema nazca BUD y que se convierta en el primer huracán de 2012 en esta cuenca... Con México en el punto de mira.

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210850
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CIRCULATION HAS PROPAGATED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER WHILE A
NEW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE LARGE DEPRESSION.  IT APPEARS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT
VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...WHICH IS A
COMPROMISE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 1.5 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND
TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.

GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE DEPRESSION AND THE EASTERLY
SHEAR...STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE GRADUAL.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE AND THE CYCLONE COULD INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE AS SHOWN
BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  IN FACT...ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE LGEM MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/6. THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AS IT IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
DURING THE 72-120 HOUR TIME PERIOD WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO TURN NORTHWARD...AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR WEST THE
CYCLONE WILL MOVE BEFORE RECURVING. OVERALL...THE 0000 UTC MODEL
RUNS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...WITH THE GFS PARALLEL AND UKMET MODELS
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
GFS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
WESTWARD AND LIES ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z  9.4N 100.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z  9.7N 100.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 10.5N 101.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 11.6N 103.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 12.7N 104.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 15.0N 104.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 17.0N 104.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 19.0N 103.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Sin cambios todavía, aunque se espera que pronto comience a coger fuelle...............

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 211448
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WITH NO DISTINCT PATTERN...AND THEY ARE REVOLVING AROUND A CENTER
THAT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  MICROWAVE DATA HAS SUGGESTED
THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...BUT
UNTIL WE GET SOME ADDITIONAL VISIBLE IMAGES NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE
BEING MADE.  DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
T2.0...AND THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH A LONG-TERM MOTION OF 270/7 KT
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...BUT THE HIGH IS NOT THAT STRONG AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
REPLACED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY.  AS A RESULT OF
THIS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO BY FRIDAY WHEN
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD...AND THE NEW
FORECAST LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE...ROUGHLY BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF.  DESPITE THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE...
THE MODELS ARE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN USUAL...ESPECIALLY AT 72
AND 96 HOURS...AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE DEPRESSION
WILL RECURVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM SINCE
THE CONVECTION HAS NOT YET COALESCED AROUND THE CENTER. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
INCREASING OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.  THE FORECAST
INTENSITIES SHOWN BY THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS DIVERGE AFTER ABOUT
12 HOURS...WITH SHIPS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE TWO.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS THROUGH
THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN REACHES A PEAK INTENSITY CLOSER TO THE
SHIPS SOLUTION AT 72 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...NEARLY ALL THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A DECREASE IN INTENSITY...AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS AT
THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z  9.2N 101.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z  9.6N 101.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 10.6N 103.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 11.8N 104.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 12.9N 105.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 15.0N 105.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 19.0N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Atención que según los pronósticos puede llegar a huracán de categoría 2...

Estamos fuera de temporada y ya van 2 tormentas..increible

Bueno, la del Pacífico Noreste comenzó el 15 de mayo............... La del Atlántico empieza el 1 de junio

Hace poco rato que ha salido la actualización de productos, y todavía no tenemos a BUD, pero la mejora en la organización es oficial

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 212047
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 PM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

A 1640 UTC ASCAT PASS HAS MADE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MORE
READILY APPARENT...AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS A BIT OF A NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT.  THE ASCAT DATA IS ALSO SHOWING WINDS NO HIGHER THAN
25-30 KT...SO THE CYCLONE IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT
DEPRESSION.

THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE CENTER LOCATION HAS RESULTED IN A LONG-TERM
MOTION OF 290/5 KT.  THERE IS RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TURN AS A WEAKNESS
IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER MEXICO.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
CHANGE IN THE MODELS ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT BE FULLY PICKED UP BY A
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND
INSTEAD SLOWS DOWN AND STALLS VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.  THE GFDL
AND HWRF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM PLOWING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MEXICO...AND THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE DISREGARDED.  THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE DECELERATING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST
OF MEXICO...ENDING UP ALONG THE COAST ON DAY 5.

DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...AND THE ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION MAY
BEGIN SOON.  IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX HAS
INCREASED TO 56 PERCENT FOR THE 25-KT THRESHOLD AND 40 PERCENT FOR
THE 30-KT THRESHOLD DUE TO THE SEEMINGLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE NHC
FORECAST THEREFORE INDICATES THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A HURRICANE BY
36 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT IS SHOWN BY SHIPS AND HWRF.  THE
CYCLONE SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 72 HOURS...BUT THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE CYCLONE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
MEXICO...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED IN SOME FASHION BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND NOW
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN BE A HURRICANE ON DAY 5.
BUT...AS ALREADY STATED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z  9.6N 101.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 10.2N 102.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 11.3N 103.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 12.4N 104.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 13.6N 105.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 15.5N 105.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 17.0N 104.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 18.0N 102.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...ON THE COAST OF MEXICO

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Ya la tenemos aquí.............. Tormenta tropical BUD.

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220841
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF CONVECTION DUE
TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE ASCAT DATA SHOWED 30 TO 35 KT
WINDS IN A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON
THIS DATA THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM...
THE SECOND OF THE 2012 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT
TERM WHICH SHOULD KEEP BUD FROM STRENGTHENING QUICKLY TODAY.  BY
TONIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF BUD.  NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
BRINGS BUD TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... INCREASING
SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
INDUCE SOME WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT THE NHC FORECAST
SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120
HOURS.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF ASCAT PASSES DURING THE PAST
12-18 HOURS SHOWS THAT BUD IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...295/10 KT.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  BUD IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DEEPENS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE
TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND BECOMES QUITE LARGE.  THERE ARE
BASICALLY TWO CAMPS OF MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE...THOSE THAT SHOW A
DEEPER TROUGH WHICH CAUSES BUD TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
MEXICO...AND A SECOND GROUP THAT TURNS BUD NORTHEASTWARD...BUT
SHOWS THE CYCLONE DECELERATING AS IT NEARS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF BUD...THIS IS THE EARLIEST DATE ON RECORD
FOR THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN THE EAST PACIFIC. IT
SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST DATE OF MAY 29.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 10.4N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 11.3N 104.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 12.4N 105.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 13.3N 106.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 14.3N 106.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 16.3N 105.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 17.5N 104.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 18.0N 104.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Afortunadamente, al menos de momento, para los mexicanos, es menos probable que BUD alcance la costa de México como huracán, ya que es posible que las condiciones ambientales se tornasen menos favorables, haciendo que el ciclón se debilite durante la aproximación.

Otro dato de gran interés es que BUD sienta un nuevo récord: primera vez que la segunda tormenta tropical de la temporada en el Pacífico Este se forma tan temprano La anterior fecha para la segunda tormenta tropical más temprana era el 29 de mayo