000
WTPZ44 KNHC 232038
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 PM PDT WED JUN 23 2010

CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
THE EYE NOW MORE SYMMETRIC AND WARMER THAN EARLIER AND THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
HAVE INCREASED TO 5.5/102 KT AND THE ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS
ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 100 KT...A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.

ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF CELIA IS STILL POSSIBLE WHILE IT IS
OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
THE CYCLONE REMAINING IN A VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING
DURING THIS TIME.  BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS...CELIA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONCE
AGAIN NUDGED UPWARD...DUE TO THE INITIAL HIGHER INTENSITY...AND
REMAINS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED AND
THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE
EROSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF CELIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH OFFSHORE THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST.  THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE CELIA TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/2100Z 12.3N 110.4W   100 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 12.6N 112.3W   110 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 13.1N 114.6W   115 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 13.8N 117.0W   110 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 14.5N 119.2W   100 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 15.5N 123.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 125.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W    40 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART