000
WTPZ44 KNHC 191240
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
530 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND A LARGE BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED
IN A 19/0805Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE ONLY T1.0/25 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY THAN THE RECENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/05 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE
POSITION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE MOVES THE CYCLONE IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD
DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MASSIVE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE U.S. SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THE MORE LOWER LATITUDE AND SLOWER ECMWF FORECAST TRACK. AS A
RESULT OF THE WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...COASTAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE RECENT AMSR-E OVERPASS REVEALED A CLOSED EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE
LOW-LEVELS WITH A NEARLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE
89-GHZ CHANNEL. BASED ON THIS IMPROVED VERTICAL STRUCTURE...AT
LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN ORDER FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OCCURRING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLOSER TO THE HWRF AND
GFDL...WHICH MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS.  THE
SHIPS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MUCH FASTER MEDIUM BAM MODEL TRACK
WHICH BRINGS THIS CYCLONE OVER COLDER WATER AND INTO STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS MUCH SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK INDICATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/1230Z 12.8N  97.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 12.6N  97.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 12.5N  99.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 12.5N 100.7W    50 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 12.5N 102.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 12.5N 104.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     23/0600Z 12.5N 106.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     24/0600Z 13.0N 108.5W    65 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 191439
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A
19/1145Z SSMI OVERPASS REVEALED A SIMILAR LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
EYE-LIKE FEATURE NOTED IN AN EARLIER AMSR-E OVERPASS...AND SHIP
WKDY LOCATED ABOUT 40 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AT 12Z REPORTED A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND OF 24 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1007.5 MB...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR OR BELOW 1005 MB.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T1.5
AND T2.0...RESPECTIVELY...BUT SINCE THEN CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED
MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER YIELDING A DATA T-NUMBER OF
T2.5/35 KT. BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE DEPRESSION HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CELIA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 245/04 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE
POSITION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE PREVIOUS TREND OF
CELIA MOVING IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...AND THEN TURNING WESTWARD...IS MAINTAINED BY ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS
MODEL...TVCN. DUE TO CELIA'S WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...
COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

AS A RESULT OF THE IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF CELIA NOTED IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS UNTIL DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE DRY SLOT IN THE
EASTERN QUADRANT...WITH A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST
AFTER THAT BASED ON THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF LESS THAN
5 KT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. BY 72 HOURS...
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CELIA...WHICH MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NEAR-30C SSTS...
LITTLE OR NO WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/1500Z 12.5N  97.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 12.4N  98.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 12.3N  99.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 12.3N 101.1W    70 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 12.3N 102.3W    75 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 12.3N 104.3W    75 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 12.5N 106.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 13.0N 109.0W    70 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 200916
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010

CORRECT INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 60 KT TO 55 KT

ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE MASS HAS CONSOLIDATED FURTHER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED. UPPER-LEVEL APPEARS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE EAST. WITH NO
IMPROVEMENT NOTED IN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND A TAFB DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.5/55 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
UNCHANGED AT 55 KT.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT CELIA MAY HAVE BEGUN
MOVING ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COURSE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 265/8. HOWEVER...WITH NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES OVER
CELIA THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN. DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
CELIA SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG
THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST SHOULD RESULT IN AN EROSION OF THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND CELIA SHOULD
RESPOND BY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 96 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THOUGH A
BIT FASTER AFTER 72 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN
CONSENSUS.

THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT TOOK PLACE EARLIER HAS SLOWED...
POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DIAGNOSED IN THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES.  THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO
PREVENT FURTHER GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FACE OF OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS. THE GFS
MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING AFTER ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...AND THE
SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS BY MAKING CELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE AT 60
HOURS...EARLIER THAN 6 HOURS AGO.  HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
GFDN CALL FOR NO APPRECIABLE INTENSIFICATION...WITH ONLY THE GFDL
FORECASTING IT TO BE A HURRICANE AT 120 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST MAINTAINS THE REASONING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
INDICATING A HIGHER INTENSITY IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...IF THE SHEAR DECREASES
FASTER THAN FORECAST...CELIA COULD BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND SOONER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0900Z 12.0N  99.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 11.8N 100.4W    65 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 11.7N 101.7W    75 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 11.8N 102.8W    80 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 11.8N 104.0W    85 KT
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 12.0N 106.7W    95 KT
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 13.0N 110.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     25/0600Z 14.0N 113.5W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN