000WTPZ43 KNHC 092040TCDEP3TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014200 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014Deep convection associated with an area of low pressure to thesouthwest of Mexico has become much better organized during thepast 12 hours, and 1554 UTC and 1640 UTC ASCAT-B and ASCAT-Aoverpasses, respectively, indicated that the system haduncontaminated surface winds of 30-32 kt in the northeast quadrant.Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the third tropicaldepression of the eastern North Pacific season. The initialintensity is set at 30 kt based on the ASCAT data and satelliteestimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from SAB.The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04 kt, basedprimarily on microwave satellite data and ASCAT wind data. Thecyclone is expected to remain south of a deep-layer subtropicalridge that extends westward from northern Mexico to Baja Californiaand into the eastern Pacific. The global and regional models are inexcellent agreement on a westward to west-northwestward motionthroughout the forecast period, and the official forecast track issimilar to but slightly faster the consensus model TVCE.Although the cloud structure of the depression has improved markedlyin visible imagery since this morning, several microwave imagesindicate that the low-level and mid-level circulations are not yetjuxtaposed. Furthermore, ASCAT wind data suggest that the low-levelcirculation is slightly elongated east-west, and a pronounced dryslot coming off of the mountains of Mexico is also evident invisible and microwave satellite data in the western semicircle. As aresult, only gradual rather than rapid strengthening is forecast forthe next 24-48 hours while the cyclone remains over warm waterand in a low environmental wind shear. By 96 hours, cooler SSTs lessthan 26C, increasing southwesterly shear, and drier mid-level airare expected to produce steady weakening. The official intensityforecast is similar to the intensity consensus model ICON.Given the forecast track and size of the tropical cyclone, theGovernment of Mexico does not anticipate the need for any watches orwarnings along the coast of Mexico.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 09/2100Z 15.4N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 15.5N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 15.6N 103.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 15.7N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 15.9N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 16.6N 109.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 17.6N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH120H 14/1800Z 18.7N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH$$Forecaster Stewart