000WTNT41 KNHC 212031TCDAT1TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OFTHE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER ORGANIZEDDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW APPEARS TO HAVE BECOMEMORE SEPARATED FROM THE LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH HASBEEN PRESENT OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST SEVERALDAYS....THOUGH IT IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A LONGCURVED BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN ANDWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 25 KT...WHICHAGREES WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB OF T1.5...25KT...AND A 25 KT ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING.A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THEDEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLYSHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COMBINED WITH WARM SSTS...AT LEASTSTEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECASTPERIOD. BY THAT TIME...SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ISPOSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THEINTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUCH A WEAKSYSTEM WITH ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE MAKING THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANEWITHIN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEMMODELS...SHOWING A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRALATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS.THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITHINCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE DEPRESSION LEAVES THESTRONG WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTICAND BECOMES STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWESTDUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 50W IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. MODELGUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE BIGOUTLIERS TO THE NORTHEAST BEING THE CMC AND THE ECMWF MODELS. THESEMODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST SOON...WHICH ALLOWS THESYSTEM TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO A TROUGH ALONG 50W. THEOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THEDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 21/2100Z 11.0N 32.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 11.5N 33.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 12.6N 35.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 13.6N 38.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 14.4N 41.4W 65 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 47.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 52.0W 95 KT120HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 55.5W 95 KT$$FORECASTER BLAKE
Vi en otro foro la dirección de este sistema..y según llega al centro del atlántico..curva..a dirección N-NE..a ver si llega a Azores o algo..
Creo que nos hemos precipitado Pedro. Como comenta Parungo, el LLCC está totalmente expuesto, ya que ha hecho un requiebro dirección Norte atraido por un centro de bajas presiones situado a su NE. Si algún Moderador lee esto que cambie el título del topic