Sí, era inevitable que lo degradaran................... De hecho, no sé si por fallo o por realidad, el CIMSS ha estado toda la tarde catalogando en su mapa principal a DANIELLE como tormenta tropical...
Adjunto boletín de discusión último:
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TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010
WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF UNEXPECTED WESTERLY SHEAR...DANIELLE HAS
UNRAVELED DURING THE DAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS OCCASIONALLY
BEEN EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF DEEP
CONVECTION...AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED ACCORDINGLY.
FINAL-T AND CI ESTIMATES FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT ARE NOW NEAR
T3.5/4.5 AND SUPPORT DOWNGRADING DANIELLE TO A 60-KT TROPICAL
STORM. WITHOUT SUFFICIENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN THE CYCLONE
ENVIRONMENT...OPERATIONALLY WE CAN NOT SPECULATE WITH CERTAINTY WHY
DANIELLE WEAKENED TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT DANIELLE RE-INTENSIFYING INTO A
HURRICANE SOON...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL WHICH SHOWS DANIELLE
BECOMING AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...INDICATES GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH ARE STRONGLY
AFFECTED BY PERSISTENCE...BUT IT REMAINS MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL
AT THIS TIME.
DANIELLE IS STILL MOVING QUICKLY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/16.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW
DOWN SOON AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...AND THE DAY 5
OFFICIAL FORECAST POSITION ENDS UP BEING 2 DEGREES FARTHER WEST
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS NEW FORECAST IS STILL TO THE
RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...AND IT LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHARPER-TURNING ECMWF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 17.5N 48.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 18.5N 49.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 20.2N 51.9W 75 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 53.8W 80 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 23.7N 55.3W 85 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 26.5N 58.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 29.5N 61.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 33.0N 61.5W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
Muy interesante este boletín, ya que expresa el hecho de que DANIELLE se ha visto afectado por una cizalladura del oeste que no se esperaba
Bueno, creo que nuestro compañero Fox ya lo avisó ayer evil Así que para el la medalla de este seguimiento :D1 También el hecho de que
debido a la falta de datos observacionales en el medioambiente del ciclón, operativamente no pueden especular ciertamente sobre por qué DANIELLE se ha debilitado hoy Esto es interesante. Recordáis cómo en 2005 pasaba justo lo contrario, que los meteorólogos no se explicaban por qué los ciclones hacía PUM o se resistían a morir en medio de ambientes teóricamente desfavorables?
Por otro lado, también se hacen eco de que las condiciones deben conducir a una reintensificación pronto... Veremos...