000WTNT44 KNHC 181448TCDAT4TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0420151100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2015The low pressure system that has been moving westward across theeastern tropical Atlantic the past few days has finally acquiredenough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropicalcyclone. A 1232 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated the system has awell-defined circulation, and there was also a large field of 30-ktand greater wind vectors in the eastern semicircle. Dvorak satelliteintensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, sothe initial intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory. Upper-leveloutflow is good to the south and fair to the north.The initial motion estimate is 280/11 kt. The global and regionalmodels are in good agreement on the tropical cyclone movingwest-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layersubtropical ridge for the next 48-72 hours, accompanied by adecrease in forward speed as the system approaches a weakness inthis ridge. After that time, the ridge is expected to build back inas a trough to the north lifts out, forcing the cyclone to turn morewestward and accelerate through the remainder of the forecastperiod. The official forecast track lies close to but a littlefaster than the multi-model consensus TVCN due to the much slowerGFS model creating a slow bias in the consensus.The overall atmospheric and oceanic environments surrounding thecyclone appear conducive for slow but steady strengtheningthroughout the forecast period. The only inhibiting factor will beoccasional brief intrusions of dry mid-level air associated with theSaharan Air Layer that lies just to the north of the depression.However, given the very low vertical wind shear of less than 5 kt,the convective structure is expected to steadily increase inorganization, allowing the dry air intrusions to be mixed out. Theofficial intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensusmodel IVCN through 72 hours, and then leans closer to a blend of theDecay-SHIPS and LGEM models at 96 and 120 hours.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH$$Forecaster Stewart
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type------------------------------------------------------------------------15 GMT 08/18/15 10.6N 36.5W 35 1009 Tropical Depression21 GMT 08/18/15 10.9N 37.5W 40 1008 Tropical Storm03 GMT 08/19/15 11.2N 38.8W 50 1000 Tropical Storm09 GMT 08/19/15 11.3N 40.2W 50 1000 Tropical Storm15 GMT 08/19/15 11.2N 41.1W 50 1000 Tropical Storm21 GMT 08/19/15 11.5N 42.0W 50 1000 Tropical Storm03 GMT 08/20/15 12.1N 42.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm09 GMT 08/20/15 12.2N 43.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
Adrian Linares @Adriansweather 11 hHace 11 horas Ver traducciónOn this recent microwave pass you can see #Danny still has a very good low level structure.