A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILESWEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVINGWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS NOWMORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSIONAPPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED ONTHIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOUR
000WTNT42 KNHC 251444TCDAT2TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTEDNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0720101100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010CORRECTED FOR ADVISORY NUMBERTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OFAFRICA TWO DAYS AGO AND PASSED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDSYESTERDAY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICALDEPRESSION SEVEN. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITHWELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND ANESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS OF2.5...ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUPPORT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS ANDVERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELYBECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND THERE IS UNUSUALLY WARMWATER OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TOREMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR AGRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND EVEN DESPITE THE SMALL INCREASE IN SHEARAT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLEFOR INTENSIFICATION. BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ONTHE SIDE OF STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THEDEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS OR SO.THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTSTO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION ISEXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THECYCLONE MOST LIKELY WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES AWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY DANIELLE. BY THEN...THECYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THEOFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLYCLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS APERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IF THIS PATTERNMATERIALIZES...IT WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAYFROM THE LESSER ANTILLES.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 25/1500Z 14.3N 30.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.7N 33.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.2N 36.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 39.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.5N 42.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 48.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 29/1200Z 19.0N 53.5W 75 KT120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.5N 57.0W 85 KT$$FORECASTER AVILA