000
WTNT41 KNHC 130847
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014

Edouard is gradually intensifying as a prominent curved band winds
most of the way around the tropical storm. However, the convective
cloud tops are warming and the central dense overcast is a bit
skeletal.  Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB as well as the
CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique have increased and all indicate
maximum winds of around 45 kt, which is the initial intensity.
Edouard is still being affected by 15-20 kt of vertical shear,
primarily being induced the southwesterly flow around a very large
tropical upper-tropospheric trough to its west. As Edouard moves
poleward of the trough axis within the next day or so, the shear
will diminish.  As the waters the system will traverse are a quite
warm 29C, only the somewhat dry atmosphere will not be conducive for
a more rapid intensification. Edouard is expected to become a
hurricane in a couple of days.  After recurvature in three to four
days, the storm motion and shear vectors are likely to align which
should allow Edouard to maintain its intensity through day 5. The
NHC wind speed forecast is nearly the same as that in the previous
advisory and is based upon a blend of the LGEM statistical model and
the GFDL and HWRF dynamical models.

A GCOM/AMSR2 microwave pass helped to locate the center of Edouard
and also indicated that the system was tilted northward with height
because of the vertical shear.  Edouard is moving toward the west-
northwest around 13 kt, under the influence of a mid-level ridge
over the central Atlantic. In about 3 to 4 days, the cyclone will
respond to a break in the ridge by recurving and then accelerating
toward the northeast.  The track guidance is tightly clustered
through the whole forecast period.  The NHC track forecast is based
upon the TVCA multi-model ensemble and is just to the east of the
previous track prediction through 48 hours and just west thereafter.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 20.7N  46.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 21.7N  47.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 23.1N  49.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 24.7N  51.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 26.1N  54.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 29.5N  57.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 33.5N  56.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 38.5N  50.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL EDOUARD ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   12
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL062014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST DOMINGO 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

...EDOUARD CERCA DE SER HURACAN SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL...

RESUMEN DE LAS 5:00 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------           
LOCALIZACION...24.0 NORTE 49.7 OESTE       
CERCA DE 950 MILLAS...1530 KM ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS SOTAVENTO 
DEL NORTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 305 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...992 MILIBARES...29.30 PULGADAS


000
WTNT41 KNHC 140857
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

Edouard continues to gradually intensify, as a tightly curved band
has wrapped around the cyclone's center.  Dvorak classifications
from both TAFB and SAB are a 4.0, or 65 kt, while the CIMSS Advanced
Dvorak Technique is substantially lower.  The current intensity of
Edouard is assessed as a high-end tropical storm at 60 kt, but the
system may already be a hurricane given the uncertainties.  The
vertical shear - primarily induced by a large tropical upper
tropospheric trough to its west-southwest - has begun to relax, now
that Edouard has moved poleward of the trough axis. Vertical shear
predicted by the global models should further weaken to less than 10
kt from 24 through 72 hours.  This along with quite warm 29C waters
is likely to lead to continued intensification through three days.
The new NHC forecast peaks Edouard's intensity at 95 kt (slightly
higher than that in the previous advisory), based upon a blend of
the SHIPS statistical model and HWRF dynamical model. While the
vertical shear picks up significantly between days 3 and 4 as
Edouard recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies, the storm motion
and shear vectors are likely to align which would allow Edouard to
maintain its intensity through day 4.  By day 5, cold waters and
very strong vertical shear are anticipated to cause substantial
weakening.  Both the FSU Cyclone Phase Space analysis and the SHIPS
storm type indicate Edouard will transition to an extratropical
cyclone by day 5.

The improved organization of the deep convection as seen in the
infrared imagery as well as a couple of microwave passes allow for a
fairly confident assessment of the current position.  Edouard is
moving toward the northwest at about 12 kt, primarily due to the
steering induced by a mid-level ridge to its northwest.  Edouard
will round the western periphery of the ridge and recurve toward
the northeast about 3 days.  The NHC track prediction is based upon
the tightly clustered multi-model TVCA track ensemble and is
slightly west of that shown in the previous advisory through 72
hours and slightly east thereafter.

The tropical-storm-force wind radii of Edouard was based upon an
earlier ASCAT pass, which indicated a substantially larger size than
that previously analyzed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 24.0N  49.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 25.0N  51.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 26.2N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 27.5N  55.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 28.9N  57.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 33.0N  56.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 38.5N  50.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 42.0N  39.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Landsea