000
WTNT41 KNHC 161447
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

Visible satellite images show that Edouard has an impressive
satellite presentation, displaying a well-defined eye within the
central dense overcast.  Edouard is upgraded to a major
hurricane based on a subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of 102 kt
from TAFB, an ADT estimate of 107 kt, and a recent SFMR surface
wind of 97 kt in the southwest eyewall. Edouard is the first major
hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, and the
first category 3 or greater hurricane in the basin since Sandy on
October 25, 2012.

Edouard is expected to reach its peak intensity within the next
12-18 hours while it remains in light shear conditions and over warm
waters.  A combination of decreasing SSTs and increasing shear
should cause the hurricane to start a steady weakening by late
tomorrow.  The intensity guidance is in good agreement, and the
latest NHC forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction and the
intensity consensus.  Edouard is expected to become post-tropical by
day 4, but this transition could even occur around day 3 due to
rather cool waters in the cyclone's path.

The initial motion is gradually shifting to the right, now 345/11.
Edouard remains located to the west of the subtropical high and will
turn northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies
during the next 24-36 hours.   An eastward acceleration is expected
by 48 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and
slow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a
deep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores.  The interaction of
the low and the tropical cyclone is causing the model guidance to
become more divergent at long range, with the GFS and the GFDL
models taking the cyclone well north of the Azores.  However,
the GFS ensemble is much farther southwest than the deterministic
GFS, and is much more consistent with the previous forecast and the
bulk of the guidance.  Thus, I have elected to leave the NHC
prediction virtually unchanged from the previous one, even though
the model consensus is a fair distance to the northeast of the new
official track at long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 31.1N  57.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 33.0N  57.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 35.7N  54.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 38.4N  50.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 40.3N  45.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 41.0N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 40.0N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  21/1200Z 38.0N  32.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
WTNT41 KNHC 162057
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

Microwave and NOAA Hurricane Hunter radar data suggest that Edouard
has begun an eyewall cycle, with a pair of concentric rings seen in
a 1605 UTC GCOM microwave image.  The last few passes from the
aircraft had a maximum flight-level wind of 93 kt, with 85 kt from
the SFMR observed a few hours ago.  These data suggest an initial
wind speed of 90 kt for this advisory.  Since the hurricane has less
than 24 hours over warm water, it is not expected to complete its
eyewall cycle, and will probably slowly weaken.  After that time,
Edouard should continue to lose strength when it moves over much
cooler water and into higher shear.  The NHC forecast is lower than
the previous one, below most of the guidance for the first day in
consideration of the current structure, then is blended with the
intensity consensus after that time. The cyclone is expected to
become post-tropical in the day 3 or 4 time frame, and become
extratropical by day 5 since most of the global models show it
developing frontal features by that time.

Edouard has turned toward the north and is moving a little
faster at about 13 kt.  The hurricane will move northeastward into
the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-36 hours while it
moves on the northwest side of the subtropical high.  An eastward
acceleration is expected by 48 hours, and the cyclone is still
forecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5 when it
moves around a trough over the eastern Atlantic.  Model guidance is
in much better agreement than the last cycle and the official
forecast is very close to the previous one, near the model
consensus and the ECMWF model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 32.3N  57.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 34.3N  56.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 37.2N  52.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 39.7N  47.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 40.9N  42.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 40.2N  37.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 39.4N  34.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  21/1800Z 36.0N  33.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

Pues sin embargo, siguen bajando la intensidad y es ya un categoría 1. Si es cierto que tiene un aspecto de una categoría mayor, pero le dan entre 75kt y 80kt. Eso si, el ojo cada vez es mas pequeño

000
WTNT41 KNHC 170849
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014

Edouard's presentation on infrared satellite imagery has changed
very little during the past 6 hours, and recent microwave images
indicate that the hurricane still has two well-defined low-level
concentric rings.  A dropsonde released into the southeastern
eyewall just after 0600 UTC during a NASA Global Hawk mission
measured an average wind of 90 kt in the lowest 150 meters, which
equates to an intensity of about 75 kt.  Edouard's initial
intensity is being held at 80 kt under the assumption that the
dropsondes did not sample the maximum winds in the eyewall.
Two dropsondes within the eye measured surface pressures of 960 and
961 mb with some wind, supporting the previous estimated storm
pressure of 959 mb.

Edouard is likely to reach water colder than 26C in about 12
hours or so.  Just as the hurricane reaches the colder water,
vertical shear is expected to increase, and the SHIPS guidance shows
westerly shear of 35 kt in about 48 hours.  With the environment
becoming so hostile, the hurricane is forecast to gradually weaken
during the next 24 hours and then more rapidly lose strength after
that.  The global models continue to show Edouard remaining separate
from nearby frontal zones and not benefiting from baroclinic
support, so the cyclone is likely to become a decaying post-tropical
low by day 3, if not sooner.

Edouard is accelerating northeastward with a motion of 035/17 kt.
The hurricane is becoming partially embedded in faster mid-latitude
westerly flow, and it is expected to continue accelerating for the
next 24 hours or so.  However, the cyclone is forecast to stay
south of the polar jet, and by 48 hours it will turn eastward and
slow down as it moves around a mid-level ridge axis.  Toward the
end of the forecast period, the remnant low should turn southward
before it reaches the main islands of the Azores.  The track
guidance remains tightly clustered for the first 48 hours but then
shows some divergence during the post-tropical phase, with the
ECMWF and HWRF showing the sharpest southward turn.  The updated NHC
track is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCA and not too
far from the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 35.1N  55.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 37.2N  52.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 39.3N  47.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 40.3N  42.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 40.3N  39.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 40.1N  36.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/0600Z 38.5N  33.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  22/0600Z 35.5N  32.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg