Abrimos este hilo por si podemos iniciar seguimiento sobre la baja presión que parece dará lugar a Edouard... en su viaje hacia el Atlántico Central y, quizás, cerca de Azores...

Habemus DT y con perspectivas de huracán

Edouard no lo va a tener fácil para desarrollarse, como suele ocurrir con los ciclones que se alejan de la RDP hacia aguas centrales todavía subtropical del Atlántico.

Está y estará encontrando cizalladura y aire seco en su camino. Aún así, los modelos contemplan intensificación gradual al estar atravesando una zona de aguas anormalmente cálidas...

000
WTNT41 KNHC 120841
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014

Edouard is feeling the effects of moderate vertical wind shear as
the center is on the southwest edge of the deep convection.  The
current intensity values from both SAB and TAFB suggest that the
cyclone remains a low-end tropical storm and its intensity is kept
at 35 kt.  While Edouard will be traversing progressively warmer
waters during the next three to four days, it may only gradually
intensify due to the inhibiting effects of about 15 kt of deep layer
shear and dry lower-tropospheric air. Indeed, dropsondes launched by
the unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft this evening showed very dry
conditions just to the southwest of Edouard.  The official intensity
forecast, based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical
models and the HWRF dynamical model, is just slightly below the
prediction from the previous advisory.

Microwave passes by the TRMM and SSMI low-earth orbiting satellites
assisted substantially in determining the initial position and
current motion, indicating that Edouard was a bit farther west than
estimated earlier.  The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward
at a faster rate of about 13 kt. Edouard should gradually turn
toward to the north by the end of the forecast period, as it moves
around the periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its north and through
a weakness in the ridge.  The official track forecast is based upon
the tightly clustered TVCA multi-model consensus and is slightly
west of the previous track prediction because of the more westerly
initial position.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 17.6N  41.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 18.6N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 19.7N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 20.7N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 22.0N  49.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 24.8N  53.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 27.5N  55.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 31.0N  55.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

De la animación de IR + RGB, parece que tras trazar un rumbo NW, ahora está virando al WNW, tal como recoge el CNH en su último análisis...

Un avión de investigación de la NASA, el RQ-4 Global Hawk, dentro de la misión GRIP, está sembrando a Edouard con radiosondas cuyos datos están siendo ingeridos por modelos meteorológicos para afinar previsiones de intensidad y trayectoria Sumamente interesante.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 121433
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014

The cloud pattern is a little more organized, and microwave data
suggest that the center is more embedded within the deep convection.
Based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from SAB,TAFB and objective
numbers from CIMSS the winds are increased to 40 kt. This intensity
is confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass.

The cyclone has a large low-level circulation and the upper-level
outflow has improved.  Most of the global models as well as SHIPS
suggest a decrease in the wind shear during the next few days.
In addition, Edouard will be moving over a pool of anomalously
warm water. This should result in gradual strengthening as indicated
in the NHC forecast, which in fact is very close to the intensity
consensus model ICON.

The cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest at 14 knots steered
by the flow around the periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
A gradual turn to the northwest and north is forecast in about 3 to
4 days when the ridge weakens. The NHC forecast is basically on top
of the multi-model consensus, which has remained in place from 06
to 12 UTC. The guidance in general is tighly clustered, increasing
the confidence in the track forecast.

The unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft is dropping numerous sondes
near and around Edouard and these data are being ingested by
global models to help with the initialization.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 18.5N  43.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 19.2N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 20.5N  46.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 21.8N  48.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 23.0N  50.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 26.0N  54.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 28.5N  56.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 32.0N  55.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

Sigue intensificándose y de momento está lidiando muy bien con el aire seco que tiene en abundancia al oeste.



Enviado desde mi GT-N7100