Parece que puede seguir los pasos de DANIEL, y convertirse también en otro "major"...

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 081437
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

THE INFRARED SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF EMILIA REMAINS ELONGATED DUE TO
A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW SINK FROM
HURRICANE DANIEL.  HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT CURVED BANDING FEATURES BENEATH THE CLOUD CANOPY WITH
SOME EVIDENCE OF A PRIMITIVE INNER CORE.  SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT AND 45 KT...WITH AMSU AND ADT
ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 45 KT CONSIDERING THE ORGANIZATION SEEN
ON MICROWAVE DATA. 

ASSUMING THAT EMILIA DOES NOT GET TOO CLOSE TO THE UPPER OUTFLOW
FROM DANIEL...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER STRENGTHENING.  ALTHOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...THE NHC FORECAST WILL NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW
THIS DUE TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE MICROWAVE RING FEATURE SEEN
OVERNIGHT AND THE LURKING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  HOWEVER THE NEW
FORECAST IS NEAR THE TOP OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND IS CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.  WEAKENING SHOULD START IN
ABOUT THREE DAYS WHEN SSTS BEGIN TO FALL ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE
INCREASE IN SHEAR AROUND THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/13.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
A RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA.  THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD DECREASE AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THIS TROUGH IS THE
BIGGEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING IT WILL CAUSE A MORE
POLEWARD MOTION OF EMILIA BEYOND THREE DAYS.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND ANY MODIFICATIONS TO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE MOSTLY COSMETIC IN NATURE...WITH THE FINAL
TRACK GENERALLY LYING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 11.2N 105.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 11.7N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 12.5N 110.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 13.2N 112.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 13.9N 114.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 15.0N 117.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 15.8N 121.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 16.5N 126.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Por su aspecto, estoy muy de acuerdo con los comentarios que se hacen en el último boletín... Puede sufrir un proceso de intensificación rápida en las próximas 24 horas... De hecho, yo apostaría incluso por un categoría 4

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090857
TCDEP5

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND
A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED. A 09/0330 UTC
SSMIS OVERPASS ALSO INDICATED A LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAD
DEVELOPED. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB...EMILIA HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS ON THIS ADVISORY.

TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE CONVENTIONAL AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS YIELDS AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/10 KT. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE HURRICANE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36-48 HOURS...BUT THEN
DIVERGES AFTER THAT WITH THE UKMET TAKING EMILIA DUE WEST AND THE
GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKING THE HURRICANE MORE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS NOW SHIFTED FROM SOUTH OF
TO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE
DISTINCT NORTHWARD-BIAS OF THE GFS MODEL WITH HURRICANE DANIEL...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION AND
IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TV15.

BASED ON THE TIGHT INNER CORE NOTED IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS...RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS AND FSSE/FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...WHICH ARE FORECASTING AN INCREASE OF 32 KT
AND 33 KT...RESPECTIVELY...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15
KT...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO LEVEL OFF THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS UNTIL
EMILIA REACHES COOLER WATERS BY ABOUT 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...
THE COMBINATION OF THE COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSE FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSSE
INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 11.9N 109.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 12.4N 110.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 13.0N 113.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 13.5N 114.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 13.9N 116.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 14.6N 120.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 15.4N 124.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 16.4N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Emilia captada como tormenta tropical por el satélite de la NASA Terra, en una imagen de color natural a las 10:45 am del 08 de julio. La tormenta tenía vientos máximos sostenidos de 65 millas (100 kilómetros) por hora, y se dirigía hacia el oeste-noroeste.



Aquí vemos a Emilia y Daniel en el Pacífico, en una imagen en el canal de vapor de agua de este mediodía:

  :D1

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 100848
TCDEP5

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH A
WELL-DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF A NEARLY CIRCULAR MASS
OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KT IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T6.0/115 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ADT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T6.2/120 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN STEADY SINCE 0500 UTC.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 290/10 KT. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON EMILIA CONTINUING TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY DAY 4...HOWEVER...THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT INTERACTS MORE WITH
THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.

NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERING LESS FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS. COLD UPWELLING...WHICH IS A
VERY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY GIVEN THAT UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES ARE ONLY ABOUT 12 UNITS OR LESS...COULD INDUCE MORE RAPID
WEAKENING THAN INDICATED AFTER 36 HOURS HOURS WHEN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES BENEATH THE HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ZERO. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 13.5N 113.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 14.0N 114.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 14.6N 116.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 15.1N 118.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 15.5N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 16.3N 123.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 17.1N 128.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 17.7N 134.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Vaya bestia!!!!!!



Mas resolución: http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Emilia.A2012191.1825.500m.jpg

EMILIA está por el S de Hawaii y aún hay seguimiento.

05E.EMILIA.25kts.1009mb.14.9N.155.6W



En fin... vaya churro...