IGOR no ha cambiado demasiado, según la última actualización de productos ciclónicos del CNH. A destacar el hecho de que no se han observado síntomas de que vaya a iniciar un ciclo de reemplazamiento del ojo de forma inmediata, lo cual puede permitir a IGOR alcanzar la categoría 5. A partir de entonces, si el ciclo inicia, es posible que comience una etapa de debilitamiento, veremos si definitiva.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 130835
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010
IGOR REMAINS A POWERFUL AND WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A
SYMMETRIC EYEWALL...CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70 C...A 15 N MI
CIRCULAR EYE...AND SPIRAL RAINBANDS. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM 0000 UTC...AND
THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 130 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. AS IS COMMON FOR MAJOR HURRICANES IN FAVORABLE OCEANIC
AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTS...INTERNAL DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY GOVERN
THE INTENSITY CHANGE OF IGOR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SINCE IT
APPEARS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS NOT YET BEGUN...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING TODAY.
THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN FOLLOWING THE TREND IN
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IGOR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF
STRONGER SHEAR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A
LITTLE MORE WEAKENING.
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 11 KT...AND IS ON THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT APPROACHES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH FLATTENING IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW
MUCH...IF ANY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD MORE RIDGING
NORTH OF IGOR...RESULTING IN A TRACK FARTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT FROM THE LAST CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN
THAT DIRECTION...BUT REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0900Z 17.7N 48.8W 130 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 17.9N 50.2W 140 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 18.5N 51.8W 135 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 19.3N 53.4W 130 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 20.4N 54.9W 125 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 22.5N 57.7W 120 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 25.0N 60.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 28.0N 63.0W 105 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tal como se indica en el mapa de trayectoria que adjunto, el ciclón puede comenzar a virar al NW pronto... Y Bermuda deberá vigilar con mucho ojo su evolución. Parece que las Antillas Menores y Puerto Rico podrían librarse, aunque recibirán un buen oleaje y puede que se tengan que activar avisos por vientos de tormenta tropical...
Tema: Gran Huracán IGOR 11L - Cat. 4 - Atlántico, Regíon de Desarrollo P. - 092010 (Leído 8130 veces)