Cita de: Javi.G en Septiembre 08, 2008, 16:57:47 pm

En el NHC deben de estar tirándose de los pelos...

El NHC ha siempre hablado de esta posibilidad.
Ayer:

Citar

S EXPECTED BUT THE DEGREE OF
WEAKENING DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. THE
LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 36
HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE
MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER.

Todos se deberían concentrarse en el cono de incertidumbre y no en la línea.
La predicción se llama "5-Day Track Forecast Cone" y no "5-Day Track Forecast Line" 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 18:20Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Ike2
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 18:03:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°11'N 79°09'W (21.1833N 79.15W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 81 miles (130 km) to the W (260°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,809m (9,216ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WNW (299°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 62° at 57kts (From the ENE at ~ 65.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NNW (331°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 970mb (28.64 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the east
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
MAX WIND OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 63 KT SE QUAD 18:14:30 Z
INNER EYEWALL STRUCTURE WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED. OUTER EYEWALL
BETTER DEFINED THAN INNER CORE FEATURE

Otra vez adquirio rumbo Oeste. Este Huracan es raro, ha estado girando a cada rato; cuando parece que ya ha girado al NW vuelve a girar al W. Quien sabe que pasara al Final, pero yo tengo claro que el sistema pasará por el canal de yucatan :O*