1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...HAVE
INCREASED A BIT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND OVER PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
000
URNT12 KNHC 202118
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL972011
A. 20/20:55:10Z
B. 14 deg 31 min N
057 deg 46 min W
C. NA
D. 54 kt
E. 043 deg 82 nm
F. 090 deg 53 kt
G. 046 deg 92 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 20 C / 457 m
J. 23 C / 456 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 01GGA INVEST OB 06
MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 20:25:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al972011_al092011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108202225
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 09, 2011, DB, O, 2011081812, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 4, AL092011
IRENE, AL, L, , , , , 09, 2011, TS, O, 2011081812, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 4, AL092011
AL, 09, 2011082018, , BEST, 0, 146N, 572W, 45, 1006, TS
HOUR: .0 LONG: -57.22 LAT: 14.44 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.10
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -58.80 LAT: 14.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.43
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -60.77 LAT: 15.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.31
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -62.88 LAT: 15.81 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.20
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -64.59 LAT: 16.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.60 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.83
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -66.30 LAT: 16.61 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.30
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -67.87 LAT: 16.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.12
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -69.46 LAT: 16.94 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.53
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -70.92 LAT: 17.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):106.45
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -72.28 LAT: 17.35 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.60 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):104.04
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -73.64 LAT: 17.58 MIN PRESS (hPa): 952.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.73
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -74.86 LAT: 17.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.80
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -75.95 LAT: 17.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.23 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):114.43
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -76.92 LAT: 17.87 MIN PRESS (hPa): 941.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):109.23
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -78.01 LAT: 18.01 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.03 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.60
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -79.00 LAT: 18.25 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):113.95
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -79.93 LAT: 18.54 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.10 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):118.59
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -80.70 LAT: 18.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):125.30
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -81.63 LAT: 19.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):124.06
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -82.53 LAT: 19.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.34 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):124.96
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -83.46 LAT: 20.66 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.56 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):132.89
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -84.50 LAT: 21.32 MIN PRESS (hPa): 920.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):133.46
AL, 09, 2011082100, , BEST, 0, 150N, 590W, 45, 1006, TS,
AL, 09, 2011082106, , BEST, 0, 160N, 604W, 45, 1006, TS,
AL, 09, 2011082112, , BEST, 0, 168N, 624W, 45, 1005, TS
AL, 09, 2011082118, , BEST, 0, 175N, 637W, 45, 999, TS
Brutalísimos datos, Santi... Eres un puto crack ;)
Mira esta imagen visible de alta resolución (http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6108/irene_mdg7.jpg)... Distingues eso que parece un ojo? Y atención a los outflows en superficie... Aire seco dándole guerra me temo, y siendo una de las causas de ese aspecto desgarbado... Aun así, muy grande, y moviendo una gran masa de humedad... Esto le servirá de escudo evil
Brutalísimos datos, Santi... Eres un puto crack ;)
Mira esta imagen visible de alta resolución (http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6108/irene_mdg7.jpg)... Distingues eso que parece un ojo? Y atención a los outflows en superficie... Aire seco dándole guerra me temo, y siendo una de las causas de ese aspecto desgarbado... Aun así, muy grande, y moviendo una gran masa de humedad... Esto le servirá de escudo evil
Menuda imagen, hay aire seco en el cadrante SW, ¿no? No se ve reflejado en los mapas del CIMSS pero ahí anda, pero me da a mi que se está intensificando a pesar de todo.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 220259
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011
IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AS THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND RADIAL
VELOCITIES HAVE INCREASED ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO
993 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT BASED ON A PEAK
BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUE OF 61 KT AND AN EXPANDING AREA OF 65 TO 70 KT
DOPPLER VELOCITIES AT 5500 TO 6000 FEET ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHEAST AND ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...SO THE INTENSITY OF IRENE WILL LARGELY BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER
PUERTO RICO. THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS...AND SOME
WEAKENING IS INDICATED DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...IF IRENE MOVES
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED HERE IN
36 TO 48 HOURS...OR WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF IT MOVES OVER MORE OF
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND. BEYOND 48 HOURS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS IRENE MOVES OVER WARM WATERS NEAR THE
BAHAMAS...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VERY HIGH LATE IN THE PERIOD
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM.
WHILE THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER APPEARED TO HAVE SLOWED ON
RADAR IMAGERY AS THE CYCLONE ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
THE LONG TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 285 DEGREES AT ABOUT
13 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A LONGWAVE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT LEAVES A
PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE BAHAMAS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
AND UKMET...ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING IRENE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD REMAINS IN THE SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN
IN THE MODEL SUITE. FOR THIS CYCLE THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED BACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF
MODELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UKMET AND GFDL FARTHER WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE FIM MODEL PROVIDED BY THE
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 17.9N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 18.6N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 19.4N 70.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 20.1N 72.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/0000Z 20.9N 73.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 23.5N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 26.5N 79.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 30.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
WTNT44 KNHC 220859
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011
IRENE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
DESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF PUERTO
RICO...AND A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN IMAGERY FROM THE FAA
TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. ALSO...LARGE PATCHES OF DOPPLER
VELOCITY VALUES AS HIGH AS 75-82 KT AT 1000-1500 FT AND 85-91 KT
AT 2000-3000 FT HAVE BEEN INDICATED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WHICH EQUATES TO AT LEAST
65-KT SURFACE WINDS. SOME DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 72 KT HAVE
ALSO BEEN DETECTED AT 500-600 FT OVER WATER. AS A RESULT OF THESE
DATA...IRENE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF ABOUT 290/10 KT. UPPER-AIR DATA
AT 00Z INDICATE 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE NOT CHANGED AT BERMUDA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF IRENE REMAINS QUITE STRONG. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP
IRENE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OFF THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND JUST SKIRTING THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE SPECIFICS OF HOW LARGE A
BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT 72 HOUR AND BEYOND...WHICH WILL ALLOW
IRENE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODELS
ARE THE RIGHTMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND KEEP IRENE
WELL EAST OF FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE UKMET AND THE GFDL MODELS ARE
THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS AND TAKE IRENE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE GFS AND THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND TAKE IRENE THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS
THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW
OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS
AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT IRENE WILL NOT INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA AS MUCH
OR AS LONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IRENE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
THE MODELS TO HAVE A VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...INCLUDING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ABOUT
1200 NMI EAST OF THE CYCLONE ACTING AS A MASS SINK. WITH IRENE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SSTS NEAR 30C AFTER 48 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...IT
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT
SOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE
FORECASTING.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 18.4N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.9N 68.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 19.7N 70.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1800Z 20.4N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/0600Z 21.3N 74.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 24.0N 77.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 30.9N 81.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT44 KNHC 221504
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. HOWEVER THE WINDS WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS AROUND 988 MB IN THE LAST
CENTER DROPSONDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70
KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS NOT
FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND
THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE... THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND MAKES IRENE A
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IN
FACT...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. IRENE IS BECOMING
A LARGE CYCLONE...AND BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND 160 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. IRENE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST...BUT
STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH IT IS
TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE CURRENT GUIDANCE LESSENS THE THREAT
TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4
TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE
FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 19.2N 67.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 19.9N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 20.5N 71.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 21.2N 73.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 22.0N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 28.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 32.5N 80.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Punta Cana esta tarde... sólo se ha visto afectada por el cuadrante SW de Irene, el más débil, poca cosa como bien se ve en el vídeo.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aq6Pjxar7Ao&feature=share[/youtube]
Así me gusta, ¡bienvenido!Punta Cana esta tarde... sólo se ha visto afectada por el cuadrante SW de Irene, el más débil, poca cosa como bien se ve en el vídeo.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aq6Pjxar7Ao&feature=share[/youtube]
Hola Fox...como ves soy hombre de palabra,la mía de Bávaro tampoco estaba mal ;)
000
WTNT64 KNHC 222348
TCUAT4
HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
750 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011
...IRENE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH...155 KM/H. DETAILS WILL
FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 815 PM AST...0015 UTC.
Bueno es que la interacción con LA Española ralentiza su evolución, claro. Yo opino que ha mejorado bestialmente en las últimas horas, sobre todo en su cuadrante sur, y el eyewall está cerrado al 50%, sólo le queda cerrar la parte sur y lo hará cuando se aleje más de La Española.
- Hola! No se si este es el sitio para este mensaje, pero tengo alli a mi novia con vuelo de regreso el sabado y estoy nervioso. Me podriais decir como va a afectar la señorita irene a la zona de Miami?¿? En los partes del NOA no hablan aun de alertas en Florida, se notará un huracan de la categoria que tenga en ese momento, o al estar "tan" lejos del nucleo no se notara toda su fuerza? muchas gracias!
Y aquí tenemos ya en imagen visible a Irene :o :o Se le ve muy fuerte, aunque para ser cat.2 no tiene ojo ni indicios de que lo vaya ha hacer ???
- Hola! No se si este es el sitio para este mensaje, pero tengo alli a mi novia con vuelo de regreso el sabado y estoy nervioso. Me podriais decir como va a afectar la señorita irene a la zona de Miami?¿? En los partes del NOA no hablan aun de alertas en Florida, se notará un huracan de la categoria que tenga en ese momento, o al estar "tan" lejos del nucleo no se notara toda su fuerza? muchas gracias!
Según las previsiones que se manejan ahora, Irene pasara por Florida el viernes. El sábado ya la habrá sobrepasado aunque puede que quede algún coletazo del huracán. No te preocupes porque no tendría problemas para coger el vuelo ;)
Hora local de Caracas 12m
Por fin Irene muestra formación del ojo, será cuestion de minutos para que las paredes se consoliden:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 232053
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
THE EYE OF IRENE WAS MORE APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME OBSCURED. THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT AND PEAK SFMR WINDS OF AROUND 75 KT. IT
HAS BEEN NEARLY 24 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED WINDS THAT
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 85 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 80 KT. THE PRESSURE DROPPED ABOUT A MILLIBAR
ON EACH SUCCESSIVE FIX AND WAS DOWN TO 976 MB ON THE LASS PASS
AROUND 1830 UTC. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE IRENE THIS EVENING.
THE HURRICANE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT IDEAL FOR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE WESTERLY
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST
24 HOURS DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. AFTER THAT...IT IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BRINGS IRENE TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THE LOWER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL/HWRF
MODELS.
THE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295/8 KT...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME AND THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AFTER THAT...
IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF...HWRF...AND GFDL...SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
BEHIND THE HURRICANE. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
EASTWARD AT 72 AND 96 HOURS BUT THE NEW 5-DAY POINT IS STILL ALONG
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT LARGE FORECAST
ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 20.9N 71.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 21.5N 72.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 22.7N 74.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 24.2N 75.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 26.1N 76.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 30.0N 77.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 34.0N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 39.0N 74.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Cada vez lo mandan más y más al este... a este paso acabará por no tocar tierra, por suerte para los EEUU.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml
Rebajado a categoría 1, aunque parece que por poco tiempo:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 240540
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
...IRENE STRENGTHENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
000
WTNT34 KNHC 241157
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THE
CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF ACKLINS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORTING STATION AT PINE CAY IN THE
CAICOS ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 65 MPH....105 KM/H.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
Sï que es vieja, sí... gracias por la corrección. ;) A ver si salen nuevas en la web de la Navy/NRL
Impresionante el vídeo....
http://www.nasa.gov/mov/581936main_20110824_IreneVideo.mov
Impresionante el vídeo....La repera limonera, ¡GUAU! IMPRESIONANTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o
http://www.nasa.gov/mov/581936main_20110824_IreneVideo.mov
000
WTNT34 KNHC 241742
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
...IRENE A LITTLE STRONGER...EYE OVER CROOKED ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 74.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACKS.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 242053
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS HAS EXPANDED NEAR THE EYEWALL AND NOW SOLIDLY SURROUNDS
THE EYE. BEFORE DEPARTING IRENE...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 116 KT
IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 954 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
105 KT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE UW-CIMMS
OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION TECHNIQUE CONTINUES TO
PREDICT A HIGH CHANCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. IN FACT...A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED SOME EVIDENCE
OF A SECONDARY EYEWALL. THESE EYEWALL CYCLES CAN PRODUCE HARD TO
PREDICT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. FOR NOW...THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CALL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY A
LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY. IN 3-4 DAYS....INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE...OR EVEN GROW IN SIZE...AS IT NEARS NEW
ENGLAND.
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/10 KT. IRENE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE. BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHETHER IRENE TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THAT
TIME. THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACKS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 23.1N 74.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 24.3N 75.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 26.1N 76.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 28.2N 77.3W 115 KT 135 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 30.1N 77.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 34.3N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 39.5N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 47.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
urrent forecast have the center of hurricane IRENE passing Rocky Bay Thursday, August 25th, 1930 local time.
Las dos Carolinas tienen que estar temblando... Adjunto previsión del GFS para el sábado a las 21 horas...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 250858
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE A FEW HOURS AGO
FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 950 MB.
HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND DATA
SUPPORTED A CURRENT INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 100 KT...AND THIS IS
PROBABLY GENEROUS. IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS
WAS HALTED BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT EVENT AS SUGGESTED BY
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE WITH WEAK SHEAR...WARM WATERS...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HURRICANE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS RE-STRENGTHENING WITHIN A DAY OR SO. AFTER A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR...SO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT
WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE LIMITATIONS IN
OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW STRONG IRENE WILL BE WHEN IT NEARS THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 315/10. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IRENE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO TURN THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE BYPASSING IRENE AND THE
HURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AND SLOW-MOVING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD PREVENT IRENE FROM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS BRACKETED
BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL ON THE EAST AND THE GFDL MODEL ON THE
WEST.
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW NECESSARY FOR A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 24.6N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 26.1N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 28.2N 77.7W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 30.4N 77.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 32.3N 77.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 36.3N 75.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 42.5N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0600Z 51.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WebCam buenísima de Palm Beach. Lo mejor que he visto nunca en webcams. :o :o
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/palmbeach/
WebCam buenísima de Palm Beach. Lo mejor que he visto nunca en webcams. :o :o
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/palmbeach/
"X" marcando la posición aproximada de Palm Beach y ubicación actual de IRENE ;)
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3343/palmbeah_pao3.jpg)
¿Y cuando llegará a ese punto el centro?
Parece que se acerca una buena banda nubosa, habrá que estar atentos a la webcam ;D
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/palmbeach/
Más web cam (disculpad si alguna ha sido posteada). Están un poco desorganizadas...
http://www.evsmartin.com/martin.htm
Ocean Plaza: http://64.192.55.100:4000/view/index.shtml
En la zona del posible impacto en tierra: http://www.surfchex.com/
Rocky Bay (Bahamas) http://www.rockybay.com/hdfull.jpg
Costa de Florida: http://www.vcservices.vcgov.org/BeachSafety/Default.aspx
Turks y Caicos: http://www.grandturkcc.com/webcam.aspx
Más web cam (disculpad si alguna ha sido posteada). Están un poco desorganizadas...
http://www.evsmartin.com/martin.htm
Ocean Plaza: http://64.192.55.100:4000/view/index.shtml
En la zona del posible impacto en tierra: http://www.surfchex.com/
Rocky Bay (Bahamas) http://www.rockybay.com/hdfull.jpg
Costa de Florida: http://www.vcservices.vcgov.org/BeachSafety/Default.aspx
Turks y Caicos: http://www.grandturkcc.com/webcam.aspx
Más webcams en NC, te cito para tenerlas todas juntas:
http://www.surfchex.com/nags-head-web-cam.php
http://www.surfchex.com/kure-beach-web-cam.php
http://www.surfchex.com/fishy-fishy-web-cam.php
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TODAY...APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE TODAY...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE THRESHOLD
BETWEEN CATEGORY TWO AND THREE AS IT REACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.
El Huracan Irene de Categoria 2 por el momento, ya esta en camino hacia EE.UU y es inminente que castigue duramente la costa Este. Mañana Sabado 27 le tocara a Carolina del Norte y posteriormente a Nueva York hacia el Domingo 28. Todo esto es por el momento segun modelos climaticos, esperemos haber que pasa en las proximas actualizaciones. http://elclima-enelmundo.blogspot.com/2011/08/eeuu-la-mira-de-furia-de-irene-apunta.html
iMPRESIONANTES imágenes, diría que se está reforzando con esos topes más fríos en torno al centro, ya veremos si logra reconstruir el eyewall y se recupera de esa cizalladura del SW que le ha pegado duro las últimas horas.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 261446
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SUGGEST THE INTENSITY OF IRENE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALTHOUGH PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB WERE 111 KT...SFMR AND DROPSONDE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A HIGHER-THAN-TYPICAL REDUCTION OF THE
WIND FROM FLIGHT-LEVEL TO THE SURFACE APPLIES...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 90 KT. GIVEN THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE
AND PREDICTED ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER PASSING NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE
AND DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS
ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND.
IRENE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360/12 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. IRENE SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD FOR ANOTHER
12 HOURS OR SO....FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AS IT MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND NO CHANGE WAS
REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS.
ONLY A SMALL ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE HURRICANE WARNING ON THIS
ADVISORY. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH
AREAS WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 30.7N 77.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 32.2N 77.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 34.4N 76.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 36.7N 75.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 39.5N 74.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 47.5N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 55.5N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1200Z 59.0N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
(http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_09L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_07.gif)
Deterioro progresivo ;)
Impresionantes imágenes en directo de la webcam que nos puso jota en la zona de posible impacto del huracán...
http://www.surfchex.com/
Es increíble el diámetro que abarca... impresionante :o :o :o :o :oPues sí, más parece un nor'easter que otra cosa, que no es poco.
Pero a estas horas, las 04:20UTC, 06:23 en la Península Ibérica, más veo a un IRENE moribundo, aunque todavía con mucho poder destructivo...
Impresionantes imágenes en directo de la webcam que nos puso jota en la zona de posible impacto del huracán...
http://www.surfchex.com/
Las vistas cuando amanezca serán espectaculares. De momento se intuye un gran oleaje.
Un precioso loop de radar.
(http://i.imgur.com/Tqar4.gif)
Parece que la localidad que va a tener el honor de recibir al huracán Irene va a ser:
Morehead city
Que burrada de oleaje hay en Nags Head en este momento :o: http://www.surfchex.com/nags-head-web-cam.php
000
WTNT34 KNHC 281152
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011
...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NEW YORK CITY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.3N 74.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...
AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT...IS DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND
SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAUGUE VIRGINIA...
INCLUDING CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT AND THE TIDAL
POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.1 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR NEW YORK CITY THIS MORNING...AND MOVE
INLAND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. IRENE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320
MILES...520 KM. GROTON CONNECTICUT RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 39 MPH...63 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/H.
BATTERY PARK NEW YORK CITY HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A TOTAL WATER LEVEL
NEAR 8.6 FEET.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND.
COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK
SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
WATER LEVELS IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK
AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES
DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER
FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN
THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN
000
WTNT64 KNHC 281302
TCUAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
900 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011
...CENTER OF IRENE MOVES OVER NEW YORK CITY...
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IRENE
MOVED OVER NEW YORK CITY AROUND 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC. IRENE HAS
WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM AND THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT
LANDFALL WAS 65 MPH...100 KM/H.
SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.7N 74.0W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Este es el nubarrón al que me refería en el vídeo. Es una imagen de Omar López desde Carolina del Norte, vía facebook de Accuweather:
(http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/9499/omarlopezarcus.jpg)
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=2001157033826&set=o.71781612888&type=1&theater
Corresponde a una supercélula kazada por @JustinWeather el 12 de Agosto pasado en Pensacola, he podido hablar con el directamente en twitter.
Pues nada... es el típico fake de internet. Como lo daba accuweather por bueno, he pensado que era correcto.
Buena aclaración ;)
Precipitaciones previstas al paso de Irene en los próximos días:
(http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8787/80920110823irenerainfal.jpg)
Hay zonas con más de 20 pulgadas.... más de 500 l/m2.
Pues nada... es el típico fake de internet. Como lo daba accuweather por bueno, he pensado que era correcto.
Buena aclaración ;)
Pues gracias a CH, que yo tambien la habia dado por buena... es que hay tanta informacion... :-X
Por otro lado, un par de imagenes bastante explicitas de lo que ha supuesto Irene, que ha basado su poder destructivo sobre todo en el tema de las inundaciones debido a la gran cantidad de agua que ha soltado... y a esto hay que sumar el tema de que la marea alta ha coincidido con su llegada... son los acumulados en las ultimas 24 horas y los ultimos 7 dias... para hacernos una idea, la gran mancha de preci, que la podemos extender desde Wilmington, en el sur de Carolina del Norte, hasta Boston, al norte de Nueva York, tiene al menos 1.000 kms de longitud y 300 de anchura... eso hubiera ocupado Andalucia oriental, Murcia, la Comunidad Valenciana, Cataluña y parte de Castilla la Mancha y Aragon...
En el dia de hoy destaca una amplisima franja con 150-200 mm y puntos por encima de hasta 250...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5518/prec_hoy_dxe5.png)
Contando los ultimos 7 dias, para poder ver lo caido ayer en Carolina del Norte y cercanias, vemos una gran area entre 200 y 250 mm, una amplia zona y otra menor de hasta 380 mm, y una zona en mitad de Carolina del Norte de mas de 500 mm...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3108/prec_7dias_yhl6.png)
45 arrestados en Nueva York esta noche pasada, cuando lo usual es unos 350... no hay mal que por bien no venga... ;D
Impresionante este último post, Jose :o :o :o :o :o Se observa una cosa importante: la actividad de rayos en el ciclón, que queda excluída a las bandas exteriores ;) Por cierto, una pequeña matización en la imagen satelital: te dejaste los remanentes de la DT11 al NNW de la DT12, jejeje :P
40 muertos en USA contabiliza ya Irene...