IRENE ahora mismo



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Pues si es verdad que quiere formar ya un ojo sobre su centro :D1 :D1 Se ve muy claramente en la animación del día de hoy del satelite MIMIC (lo pongo en modo enlace porque nose otra forma de subir el gif animado. Si alguien sabe que me lo diga, plis )

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_09L/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_04.html

Por cierto, impresionantes y hermosas animaciones las que me he encontrado en el blog del cimss sobre Irene. La primera es de antes de ayer y la segunda de ayer

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/110821_g13_vis_irene_rso_anim.gif

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/110822_g13_vis_irene_anim.gif

De todos modos, cuidado, que tiene que dar mucho más de sí...

000
WTNT44 KNHC 232053
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

THE EYE OF IRENE WAS MORE APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME OBSCURED.  THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT AND PEAK SFMR WINDS OF AROUND 75 KT. IT
HAS BEEN NEARLY 24 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED WINDS THAT
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 85 KT.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 80 KT.  THE PRESSURE DROPPED ABOUT A MILLIBAR
ON EACH SUCCESSIVE FIX AND WAS DOWN TO 976 MB ON THE LASS PASS
AROUND 1830 UTC.  ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE IRENE THIS EVENING.

THE HURRICANE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT IDEAL FOR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE WESTERLY
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST
24 HOURS DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. AFTER THAT...IT IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BRINGS IRENE TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THE LOWER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL/HWRF
MODELS.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295/8 KT...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME AND THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AFTER THAT...
IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF...HWRF...AND GFDL...SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
BEHIND THE HURRICANE. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
EASTWARD AT 72 AND 96 HOURS BUT THE NEW 5-DAY POINT IS STILL ALONG
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT LARGE FORECAST
ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 20.9N  71.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 21.5N  72.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 22.7N  74.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 24.2N  75.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 26.1N  76.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 30.0N  77.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 34.0N  76.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 39.0N  74.8W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Cada vez lo mandan más y más al este... a este paso acabará por no tocar tierra, por suerte para los EEUU.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml

Wow, mola

Vuelve a ser un cat.2, y muy cerca de la cat.3.
965 mb - 90 kts
Hay dos recon A LA VEZ en Irene!!!!!  

¿Pinhole eye?

Rebajado a categoría 1, aunque parece que por poco tiempo:

Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
23 GMT 08/20/11  14.9N 58.5W     50       1006     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/21/11  15.3N 59.9W     50       1006     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/21/11  16.4N 61.3W     50       1006     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/21/11  17.0N 63.2W     50       1007     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/21/11  17.7N 64.4W     50        999     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/22/11  17.9N 65.5W     70        993     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/22/11  18.4N 66.4W     75        987     Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/22/11  19.2N 67.5W     80        988     Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/22/11  19.5N 68.6W     80        988     Category 1 Hurricane
00 GMT 08/23/11  19.7N 68.7W    100        981     Category 2 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/23/11  19.9N 69.2W    100        980     Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/23/11  20.3N 70.1W    100        978     Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/23/11  20.5N 71.0W    100        980     Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/23/11  20.9N 71.5W     90        976     Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/24/11  21.3N 72.4W     90        969     Category 1 Hurricane

Rebajado a categoría 1, aunque parece que por poco tiempo:

De la forma en que está reestructurándose, creo que en la próxima actualización del archivo wunderground aparecerá como categoría 3 El anillo de convección central es muy muy grueso

000
WTNT34 KNHC 240540
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES