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Autor Tema: GRAN Huracan Kilo 03C categoría 4, Pacífico Central Hawai, Agosto 2015  (Leído 3133 veces)

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GRAN Huracan Kilo 03C categoría 4, Pacífico Central Hawai, Agosto 2015
« en: Agosto 21, 2015, 17:53:04 pm »
Ya tenemos a esta tormenta tropical, con un nombre bastante familiar para nosotros ;D

« Última modificación: Agosto 30, 2015, 10:36:23 am por Gale »
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Re:Tormenta tropical Kilo 03C, Pacífico Central Hawai, Agosto 2015
« Respuesta #1 en: Agosto 22, 2015, 17:56:00 pm »
Kilo ha sido rebajada a depresión tropical... pero aun con todo, Hawai debe andar con cuidado:

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Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue  4 minHace 4 minutos
5-day forecast from mesoscale models (GFDL & HWRF) at 06z is troubling for TS #Kilo SW of Hawaii -- both Cat 4+

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Re:Tormenta tropical Kilo 03C, Pacífico Central Hawai, Agosto 2015
« Respuesta #2 en: Agosto 23, 2015, 10:50:01 am »
Los pronósticos sobre KILO siguen siendo agresivos...

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Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue  8 hHace 8 horas Ver traducción
Mesoscale HWRF + GFDL at 18z updated.
Both see Cat 4+ #Kilo SSW of Kauai in 4-5 days. Track uncertain after that.

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Re:Huracan Kilo 03C categoría 1, Pacífico Central Hawai, Agosto 2015
« Respuesta #3 en: Agosto 29, 2015, 12:16:19 pm »
8 días lleva pululando al sur de las Hawái... y por fin ha decidido intensificarse... A ver si por fin en el grado pronosticado, que le llevaría a ser otro "major" ...

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Re:GRAN Huracan Kilo 03C categoría 3, Pacífico Central Hawai, Agosto 2015
« Respuesta #4 en: Agosto 29, 2015, 23:40:50 pm »
Otro huracán que ha hecho CATAPUM... y tenemos 3 grandes huracanes a la vez en el Pacífico Central y Noreste...

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WTPA41 PHFO 292057
TCDCP1

HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2015
 
KILO INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DISTINCT EYE IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE OUTFLOW IS SYMMETRIC
AND HAS EXPANDED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES
CAME IN AT 6.0/115 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND 5.5/102 KT FROM JTWC.
THE UW/CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE FROM 1800 UTC CAME IN AT 110 KT. BASED ON
A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 110 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY...WHICH MEANS THAT KILO HAS GONE THROUGH RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AND IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE IS 270/10 KT. THE SHORT TERM
MOTION HAS BEEN A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT THE GENERAL
SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME. NAMELY...KILO WILL GRADUALLY MAKE A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MAIN DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL
SHOW THIS SOLUTION BUT DIFFER ON THE SHARPNESS OF THE TURN.
ACCOUNTING FOR THE RECENT JOG TO THE LEFT...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN
FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS BEYOND 24 HOURS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 29C BENEATH KILO AND ARE
PROJECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. RAMMB/CIRA SHOWS
ELEVATED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES THROUGH 48 HOURS. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WAS ABOUT 8 KT ON THE 1800 UTC UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITH KILO PEAKING AS
A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. THIS FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT BECAUSE KILO MAY GO THROUGH
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THE 30 KT RI THRESHOLD IS 61
PERCENT. THUS...REACHING CATEGORY 5 IS A POSSIBILITY THOUGH NOT
COMMON IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 18.0N 175.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 18.5N 176.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 19.5N 177.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 20.6N 178.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 21.9N 179.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 23.8N 179.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 24.5N 178.5E  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 24.5N 176.5E  120 KT 140 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

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Re:GRAN Huracan Kilo 03C categoría 4, Pacífico Central Hawai, Agosto 2015
« Respuesta #5 en: Agosto 30, 2015, 10:40:58 am »
Impresionante... otro categoría 4...

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WTPA41 PHFO 300259
TCDCP1

HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
500 PM HST SAT AUG 29 2015
 
THE EYE OF KILO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. A BANDING FEATURE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL
DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT
6.0/115 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND 5.5/102 KT FROM JTWC. THE
UW/CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE AT 0000 UTC WAS 122 KT. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 115 KT FOR THIS
PACKAGE...MAKING KILO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.

THE LATEST IMAGES SHOW THAT KILO HAS RESUMED ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AND THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE HAS BEEN SET TO 290/8
KT. THE MAIN DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SHOW KILO GRADUALLY MAKING A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT HEADS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THAT A
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND WILL TURN IT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. FOR THIS PACKAGE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT ALONG THE SAME GENERAL PATH.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 29C BENEATH KILO AND ARE
PROJECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. RAMMB/CIRA
DATA SHOW ELEVATED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES THROUGH 48 HOURS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WAS ABOUT 8 KT ON THE 0000 UTC UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS
AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY LOW THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR KILO TO PEAK AT 130 KT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH IS A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.
BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING TO 115
KT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT ABOVE IVCN. THE IVCN
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WEIGHED DOWN BY HWRF WHICH CALLS FOR MUCH
MORE WEAKENING DUE TO HIGHER VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ALONG A TRACK
THAT IS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MAIN GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE. NOTE
THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT THESE LEVELS IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE
KILO MAY GO THROUGH EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 18.4N 176.2W  115 KT 135 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 18.8N 177.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 19.9N 178.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 21.1N 179.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 22.5N 179.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 24.2N 179.3E  115 KT 135 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 24.5N 177.0E  115 KT 135 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 25.0N 174.5E  115 KT 135 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

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Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 GMT 08/20/15  11.0N 150.2W     35       1005     Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/21/15  11.0N 151.5W     35       1005     Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/21/15  12.3N 151.3W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/21/15  12.7N 151.7W     40       1004     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/21/15  13.0N 153.3W     40       1004     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/22/15  13.4N 154.9W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/22/15  13.3N 156.5W     35       1005     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/22/15  13.8N 158.2W     30       1006     Tropical Depression
21 GMT 08/22/15  14.2N 159.4W     30       1005     Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/23/15  15.2N 160.7W     35       1005     Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/23/15  15.2N 162.3W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/23/15  15.2N 163.8W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
21 GMT 08/23/15  14.5N 164.9W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/24/15  14.5N 166.1W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/24/15  14.8N 166.7W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/24/15  15.6N 167.6W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
21 GMT 08/24/15  16.7N 167.8W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/25/15  17.4N 167.1W     30       1006     Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/25/15  18.4N 167.3W     30       1006     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/25/15  18.5N 167.3W     30       1006     Tropical Depression
21 GMT 08/25/15  18.5N 167.2W     30       1006     Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/26/15  18.6N 167.4W     35       1005     Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/26/15  18.4N 167.9W     35       1005     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/26/15  18.9N 167.8W     35       1005     Tropical Depression
21 GMT 08/26/15  18.3N 167.6W     40       1004     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/27/15  17.9N 168.1W     50       1001     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/27/15  17.9N 168.1W     50       1001     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/27/15  17.8N 168.1W     65        994     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/27/15  17.7N 168.5W     70        990     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/28/15  17.4N 169.1W     70        990     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/28/15  17.1N 169.8W     70        990     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/28/15  17.2N 170.6W     70        990     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/28/15  17.5N 171.7W     70        990     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/29/15  17.7N 172.5W     70        990     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/29/15  17.8N 173.3W     75        985     Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/29/15  18.0N 174.3W     90        976     Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/29/15  18.0N 175.5W    125        952     Category 3 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/30/15  18.4N 176.2W    135        948     Category 4 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/30/15  18.6N 176.8W    140        940     Category 4 Hurricane

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