000
WTPZ43 KNHC 211439
TCDEP3

HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
700 AM PST MON NOV 21 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KENNETH CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED COILED BAND
WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION.  SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT
A RAGGED EYE IS FORMING...AND A 1141 UTC SSMIS SHOWS A NEARLY
LOW-LEVEL CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE A
CONSENSUS 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE HAS FURTHER INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A STEADY 285/12. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE TRACK OF KENNETH BENDING MORE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT IS STEERED BY AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. IN 2-3 DAYS...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE U.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GREATER POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD THEN RE-STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CAUSING THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT DIVERGES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES ARE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH/VERTICAL
DEPTH OF KENNETH BEYOND 3 DAYS...WITH THE GFS FAVORING A STRONGER
CYCLONE AND THE ECMWF DEPICTING A WEAKER VERSION. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
THEN ADJUSTED A BIT SOUTHWARD...CONTINUING TO WEIGH THE ECMWF MORE
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH KENNETH HAS ALREADY EXITED THE WARMEST WATERS OF THE
BASIN...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE UNCLIMATOLOGICALLY
LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BARRING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OR
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INNER CORE...KENNETH IS LIKELY TO REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT A DAY OR SO.  SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD
COMMENCE AFTER THIS TIME AS THE WATERS GRADUALLY COOL ALONG ITS
PATH.  A FASTER WEAKENING...PERHAPS MORE THAN INDICATED HERE...IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD ONCE KENNETH REACHES WATERS OF 25-26C
AND WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL/FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THROUGH 72
HOURS AND CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT AFTER THAT.

SHOULD KENNETH ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...IT WOULD BE THE
LATEST MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN
SATELLITE ERA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 12.7N 109.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 12.9N 111.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 13.0N 115.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 13.4N 117.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 14.4N 120.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 15.2N 124.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 15.5N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 220844
TCDEP3

HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
100 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

KENNETH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY. THE EYE HAS WARMED AND
BECOME MORE DISTINCT DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONSOLIDATED AND GAINED
SYMMETRY...AND KENNETH NOW HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A COMPACT MATURE
HURRICANE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0600 UTC WERE 90 KT AND 102 KT
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...RECENT ADT VALUES AND A
SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB REVEAL HIGHER ESTIMATES.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 110 KT...AND THAT
COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. THIS MAKES KENNETH A MAJOR HURRICANE...THE
LATEST ONE TO HAVE FORMED IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN THE
SATELLITE ERA.

SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS KENNETH REMAINS
IN A VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS OF ABOUT
27-28C. HOWEVER...STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BEYOND
24 HOURS AS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...FALLING BELOW 26.5C IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AND TO NEAR 25C IN
ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THAT COULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING
TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AS NONE OF THE MODELS ANTICIPATED THE
OBSERVED RATE OF INTENSIFICATION...AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.

KENNETH IS MOVING DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A
WESTWARD TRACK FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. A TURN BACK TO THE WEST IS FORECAST BEYOND 3 DAYS DUE TO
THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH
AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING DEPTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 13.0N 112.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 13.0N 114.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 13.2N 116.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 13.6N 117.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 14.2N 119.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 15.1N 122.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 15.5N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 16.0N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI