000
WTPZ45 KNHC 081434
TCDEP5

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
900 AM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015

The satellite presentation of Linda has improved this morning, with
an eye becoming apparent in infrared imagery. Dvorak satellite
classifications were T6.0/115 kt from TAFB and T5.5/102 kt from
SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT estimates have increased to T5.9/112 kt.
The initial intensity is set conservatively to 105 kt given the
rapid change in the satellite presentation and the variation seen in
the definition of the eye in recent images. This makes Linda the
fifth major hurricane in the eastern North Pacific basin this year.

It would appear that Linda is peaking in intensity now, as the
cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs and into a
drier more stable environment over the next several days. Slow
weakening is forecast today, followed by more rapid weakening due to
the above-mentioned unfavorable factors. The new NHC forecast is
higher than the previous one through 24 hours to account for the
initial intensity, but is similar to the previous official forecast
after that time. Linda should become a remnant low in about 3 days
over very cool waters west of the Baja California peninsula.

Linda has been moving a little faster during the past few hours,
with an initial motion estimate of 335/12. The tropical cyclone
should turn toward the northwest later today under the influence of
a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico. The remnant low is then
forecast to turn west-northwestward and westward by the end of the
period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The track model
guidance has continued to shift toward the right this cycle, and is
also a bit faster. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted to account
for those trends, and now lies on the left side of the guidance
envelope, between the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus.

Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja
California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions
of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. The
analyzed 12-ft seas radii were increased based on data from a recent
Jason-2 satellite altimeter pass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 21.3N 113.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 22.3N 114.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 23.7N 116.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 25.0N 117.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 26.1N 118.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 27.3N 120.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1200Z 27.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1200Z 27.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan