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Autor Tema: Gran Huracán NORBERT 15E - categoría 4 - (Pacífico Este - Baja California)  (Leído 2390 veces)

Desconectado Gale

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Tenemos esta cuenca atlántica un poco olvidada ::)

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON
A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FORM TAFB...AND
A 04/1652Z ASCAT OVERPASS THAT CAME IN AFTER THE 21Z ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED...WHICH SHOWED SEVERAL 30- TO 34-KT WIND VECTORS IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. SINCE THAT THE TIME OF THE ASCAT OVERPASS...
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/05. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH 96 HOURS AS NORBERT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY 120 HOURS...A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH 72 HOURS AS
NORBERT REMAINS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 28C. ALSO...AS NORBERT MOVES
FARTHER WEST...THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF DRY EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE AIR
COMING FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD BE REDUCED. THEREFORE...
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND ICON
INTENSITY MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HWRF MODEL MAKES
NORBERT A 102-KT MAJOR HURRICANE ON DAY 4. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO
IS BEING DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 20 KT AFTER 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0300Z 14.2N 100.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 14.4N 101.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 14.7N 103.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 15.0N 104.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 15.4N 105.3W    55 KT
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 17.0N 109.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     10/0000Z 18.5N 111.5W    65 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
« Última modificación: Octubre 08, 2008, 23:40:41 pm por Gale »

Desconectado AngelAldair94

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Re: Tormenta Tropical NORBERT (Pacífico Este - México)
« Respuesta #1 en: Octubre 05, 2008, 14:34:03 pm »
Ya sostiene vientos de 40 KTS y el NHC le augura un pico de intensidad de por lo menos 75 KTS ::) ::) ::)

Desconectado Gale

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Re: Huracán NORBERT 15E - categoría 1 - (Pacífico Este - México)
« Respuesta #2 en: Octubre 07, 2008, 15:33:41 pm »
Nuevo huracán en el Pacífico Este, adjunto aviso público del Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Florida:

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 070848
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2008

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST OR ABOUT 585 MILES
...940 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  NORBERT IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE
.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...15.1 N...106.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Desconectado AngelAldair94

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Re: Huracán NORBERT 15E - categoría 1 - (Pacífico Este - México)
« Respuesta #3 en: Octubre 07, 2008, 23:23:59 pm »
Este Huracan sera de los más peligrosos de este año! Ahora parece que ya tiene un Ojo bien formado...

Desconectado Los_Mochis_Sinaloense

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Re: Huracán NORBERT 15E - categoría 1 - (Pacífico Este - México)
« Respuesta #4 en: Octubre 08, 2008, 04:15:25 am »
hola pues ya se ve formandose el ojo miren

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-avn.html

Saludos

Desconectado Lisandro89

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Re: Huracán NORBERT 15E - categoría 1 - (Pacífico Este - México)
« Respuesta #5 en: Octubre 08, 2008, 05:04:28 am »
Con que sorpresita se van a despertar compañeros españoles  :mucharisa: :mucharisa:

Norbert ya es casi un categoria 3!!! 105mph - 970mb

Ya empezo a sacar el ojo claramente y es un signo de fortalecimiento continuo por varias hs mas!

Y tendria un pico de 125mph!










Saludos!  8)

Desconectado Gale

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Re: Huracán NORBERT 15E - categoría 2 - (Pacífico Este - México)
« Respuesta #6 en: Octubre 08, 2008, 05:25:32 am »
Todavía es categoría 2, según el Centro Nacional de Huracanes, aunque está llamado a ser huracán mayor. Tela! Y se va para California.................!

Desconectado Gale

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Re: Gran Huracán NORBERT 15E - categoría 3 - (Pacífico Este - Baja California)
« Respuesta #7 en: Octubre 08, 2008, 15:30:10 pm »
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 080833
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
200 AM PDT WED OCT 08 2008

...NORBERT BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF NORBERT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST OR ABOUT 470 MILES
...755 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.1 N...110.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Mucho ojo, porque los pronósticos de trayectoria lo llevarían hacia Baja California en tan sólo 72 horas, con poca pérdida de fuerza en sus vientos sostenidos, y podrían mantener la categoría 2 al tocar tierra.


Desconectado Lisandro89

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Re: Gran Huracán NORBERT 15E - categoría 3 - (Pacífico Este - Baja California)
« Respuesta #8 en: Octubre 08, 2008, 22:40:46 pm »
10/07 21 GMT 15.20 -108.10 85 980 Category 1 Hurricane 
10/08 3 GMT 15.70 -109.00 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane 
10/08 9 GMT 16.10 -110.00 115 960 Category 3 Hurricane 
10/08 15 GMT 16.30 -110.60 125 952 Category 3 Hurricane 
10/08 21 GMT 16.60 -111.20 135 948 Category 4 Hurricane 

Lindo fortalecimiento pego este bicho... en 24hs paso de huracan categoria 1 a 4!

PD: NO HAY MUCHOS POST, QUE ANDA PASANDO? :P

Desconectado Gale

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Re: Gran Huracán NORBERT 15E - categoría 4 - (Pacífico Este - Baja California)
« Respuesta #9 en: Octubre 08, 2008, 23:39:57 pm »
El tiempo está muy movido por acá por España, Lisandro, jejeje.

No veas! Ya categoría 4! Menudo bicho. Veremos si no hay cambios de trayectoria y si sigue mirando hacia Baja California...

Desconectado Gale

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Re: Gran Huracán NORBERT 15E - categoría 4 - (Pacífico Este - Baja California)
« Respuesta #10 en: Octubre 08, 2008, 23:43:00 pm »
¿Posible PENWHEEL EYE? Qué pasada de imagen...


Desconectado Gale

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Re: Gran Huracán NORBERT 15E - categoría 4 - (Pacífico Este - Baja California)
« Respuesta #11 en: Octubre 09, 2008, 19:56:11 pm »
NORBERT se ha debilitado un poco........

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 091441
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
800 AM PDT THU OCT 09 2008

...NORBERT WEAKENS A LITTLE...BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF NORBERT
.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES
...620 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.  A
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.  NORBERT IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...18.0 N...112.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Las imágenes que ofrece este huracán siguen siendo preciosas! Veremos los daños que causa en Baja California. El impacto será directo.

« Última modificación: Octubre 09, 2008, 19:58:31 pm por Gale »

Desconectado AngelAldair94

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Re: Gran Huracán NORBERT 15E - categoría 4 - (Pacífico Este - Baja California)
« Respuesta #12 en: Octubre 09, 2008, 21:12:35 pm »
Sigue debilitandose y ahora sostenie vientos de 115 MPH.

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Re: Gran Huracán NORBERT 15E - categoría 4 - (Pacífico Este - Baja California)
« Respuesta #13 en: Octubre 11, 2008, 10:58:16 am »
NORBERT sigue como gran huracán, muy cerca ya de Baja California...

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 110837
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...NORBERT REGAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IT APPROACHES
SOUTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
145 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY
THIS AFTERNOON. NORBERT IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE THIS
MORNING...THEN MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT
.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WITH STEADY WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.
HOWEVER...NORBERT COULD STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES A SECOND
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.  IN ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
BEGINNING TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...23.5 N...112.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Archivo de Wunderground de la vida de NORBERT:

 Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 GMT 10/04/08  13.6N 99.4W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
09 GMT 10/04/08  13.6N 98.8W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 10/04/08  14.0N 99.5W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
21 GMT 10/04/08  14.2N 100.3W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
03 GMT 10/05/08  14.2N 100.9W     40       1005     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/05/08  14.2N 101.4W     45       1003     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/05/08  14.6N 101.9W     60        997     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/05/08  14.4N 103.1W     60        997     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/06/08  14.1N 103.7W     65        993     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/06/08  14.1N 103.9W     65        993     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/06/08  14.3N 104.7W     65        993     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/06/08  14.5N 105.3W     70        990     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/07/08  14.7N 105.9W     75        987     Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/07/08  15.1N 106.4W     75        987     Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/07/08  15.3N 107.1W     80        987     Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/07/08  15.2N 108.1W     85        980     Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/08/08  15.7N 109.0W    105        970     Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/08/08  16.1N 110.0W    115        960     Category 3 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/08/08  16.3N 110.6W    125        952     Category 3 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/08/08  16.6N 111.2W    135        948     Category 4 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/09/08  17.1N 111.8W    135        948     Category 4 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/09/08  17.5N 112.5W    125        954     Category 3 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/09/08  18.0N 112.7W    115        960     Category 3 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/09/08  18.3N 112.9W     90        972     Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/10/08  18.9N 113.2W     90        973     Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/10/08  19.7N 113.4W     85        975     Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/10/08  20.6N 113.4W    100        973     Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/10/08  21.4N 113.4W    105        970     Category 2 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/11/08  22.3N 113.1W    105        970     Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/11/08  23.5N 112.5W    115        962     Category 3 Hurricane

Desconectado Gale

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Re: Gran Huracán NORBERT 15E - categoría 4 - (Pacífico Este - Baja California)
« Respuesta #14 en: Octubre 11, 2008, 21:31:31 pm »
Ya se está produciendo el impacto de NORBERT en Baja California...

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 111757
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...NORBERT CROSSING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
85 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
A NORTHEAST MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...NORBERT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNINA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE HURRICANE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT
.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE HURRICANE CROSSES BAJA
CALIFORNIA...BUT NORBERT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHEN IT
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
.  AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY
INTO NORBERT THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.

NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.  IN ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...NEAR
AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...24.6 N...111.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

 



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