WTPA45 PHFO 152055TCDCP5TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP0220141100 AM HST WED OCT 15 2014 ANA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCASTOVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING. MICROWAVE DATA FROM1435 AND 1744 UTC SHOWED THAT THE ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION WASDISPLACED SOUTH OF THE LLCC WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF SHEAR IMPINGINGON THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES SHOWAN EXPANDING AND MORE SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THESHEAR IS EASING AND THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THELATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 55 KT FROMPHFO AND JTWC...AND 65 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESEESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 60 KT.CONSIDERING THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...ANA MAY BECLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOVEMENT IS 270/8KT WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OFTHE CYCLONE PROVIDING THE WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT. IN THENEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT ANDPRODUCE A NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANATOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVEBECOME TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...EVEN BEYOND 72 HOURS AND THE CONSENSUSTRACK HAS REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED. THUS...THE CURRENT TRACK ISCONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE EXCEPT FOR A VERYSMALL INCREASE IN SPEED. THE TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF ANA JUSTSOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII THEN NORTHWEST NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU. THE FORWARD MOTION SLOWS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE NOAA GULFSTREAM IV IS SCHEDULED TO BEGIN SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND ANA LATER TODAY. THE DATA FROM THESE FLIGHTS SHOULD HELP IMPROVE SUBSEQUENT MODEL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANA...INTENSITYGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INTENSIFICATION OF ANA...THOUGH NOTQUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER PACKAGES. HWRF AND GFDL ARE THE MOSTAGGRESSIVE WHILE SHIPS INDICATES ANA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24TO 36 HOURS. WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM SSTS AND OCEANIC HEATCONTENT...THE FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD THE HWRF SOLUTION AND CALLS FOR ANA TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A PEAKINTENSITY FORECAST OF 80 KT IS EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY. THIS ISCONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS ABOVE THE LATESTINTENSITY CONSENSUS. SHIPS CALLS FOR INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR TOSTART WEAKENING ANA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITORTHE FUTURE PROGRESS OF ANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FORPORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 14.3N 147.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 14.6N 148.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 15.1N 150.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 15.9N 152.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.0N 153.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 19.4N 156.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 21.0N 158.0W 65 KT 75 MPH120H 20/1800Z 22.5N 159.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$FORECASTER KODAMA
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type------------------------------------------------------------------------21 GMT 10/13/14 12.8N 143.2W 35 1007 Tropical Depression03 GMT 10/14/14 12.9N 142.5W 40 1005 Tropical Storm09 GMT 10/14/14 13.2N 142.9W 45 1003 Tropical Storm15 GMT 10/14/14 13.4N 143.3W 50 1000 Tropical Storm21 GMT 10/14/14 14.0N 144.2W 65 997 Tropical Storm03 GMT 10/15/14 13.9N 145.2W 65 996 Tropical Storm09 GMT 10/15/14 14.1N 146.1W 70 994 Tropical Storm15 GMT 10/15/14 14.3N 146.5W 70 994 Tropical Storm21 GMT 10/15/14 14.3N 147.4W 70 994 Tropical Storm03 GMT 10/16/14 14.1N 148.4W 65 998 Tropical Storm09 GMT 10/16/14 14.1N 149.3W 60 1000 Tropical Storm15 GMT 10/16/14 14.1N 150.3W 60 1000 Tropical Storm21 GMT 10/16/14 14.3N 150.9W 60 1000 Tropical Storm03 GMT 10/17/14 14.6N 151.9W 60 1000 Tropical Storm09 GMT 10/17/14 15.2N 153.0W 65 998 Tropical Storm15 GMT 10/17/14 15.7N 154.2W 70 992 Tropical Storm21 GMT 10/17/14 16.4N 155.2W 75 990 Category 1 Hurricane03 GMT 10/18/14 17.0N 156.6W 80 986 Category 1 Hurricane09 GMT 10/18/14 17.8N 157.4W 85 985 Category 1 Hurricane15 GMT 10/18/14 18.5N 158.1W 80 986 Category 1 Hurricane21 GMT 10/18/14 19.3N 158.9W 80 988 Category 1 Hurricane03 GMT 10/19/14 19.9N 159.2W 80 987 Category 1 Hurricane09 GMT 10/19/14 20.3N 159.5W 80 989 Category 1 Hurricane15 GMT 10/19/14 20.6N 159.7W 80 989 Category 1 Hurricane21 GMT 10/19/14 20.7N 160.6W 75 992 Category 1 Hurricane03 GMT 10/20/14 20.8N 161.3W 70 994 Tropical Storm09 GMT 10/20/14 20.7N 162.2W 70 995 Tropical Storm15 GMT 10/20/14 20.6N 163.3W 70 995 Tropical Storm21 GMT 10/20/14 20.9N 164.0W 65 996 Tropical Storm03 GMT 10/21/14 20.6N 164.4W 60 997 Tropical Storm09 GMT 10/21/14 21.0N 164.7W 50 999 Tropical Storm15 GMT 10/21/14 20.9N 165.9W 50 1000 Tropical Storm21 GMT 10/21/14 21.2N 165.7W 40 1005 Tropical Storm03 GMT 10/22/14 21.9N 166.4W 40 1005 Tropical Storm09 GMT 10/22/14 22.4N 167.1W 40 1005 Tropical Storm15 GMT 10/22/14 22.8N 167.4W 40 1005 Tropical Storm21 GMT 10/22/14 23.8N 167.4W 40 1005 Tropical Storm03 GMT 10/23/14 24.8N 167.9W 40 1005 Tropical Storm09 GMT 10/23/14 25.5N 168.4W 40 1005 Tropical Storm15 GMT 10/23/14 26.6N 168.9W 50 998 Tropical Storm21 GMT 10/23/14 27.1N 169.7W 50 999 Tropical Storm03 GMT 10/24/14 27.2N 170.2W 50 1000 Tropical Storm09 GMT 10/24/14 27.9N 170.1W 50 1000 Tropical Storm15 GMT 10/24/14 28.6N 169.8W 60 999 Tropical Storm21 GMT 10/24/14 29.7N 169.3W 65 996 Tropical Storm03 GMT 10/25/14 31.0N 167.8W 75 988 Category 1 Hurricane09 GMT 10/25/14 32.4N 165.8W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane15 GMT 10/25/14 34.3N 163.4W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
Adrian Linares @Adriansweather · 14 h Hace 14 horasAna intensifies into a cat 1 hurricane N of Hawaii again winds 75 mph. Is one of 8 hurricanes in the E-pac above 30N.