Hora local de Caracas 10pm

El radar está mostrando un posible ERC. Algunos meteorólogos americanos indican via twitter que el sistema lo experimenta, apreciándose lo que aparenta ser el colapso del ojo:



El huracán aun no toca tierra a pesar que ya el cuadrante delantero está dentro de la península. Infrarroja actual:

¿Y su aspecto actual, que aún muestra ojo?

Se adentra aún más en tierra y sale el visible



El nuevo aviso de NHC comenta que ERNESTO se debilita mientras se mueve por México pero siguen las fuertes lluvias

000
WTNT35 KNHC 081200
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
700 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
...ERNESTO WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER MEXICO...BUT HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE...

Cita de: Eyestorm_Eric en Agosto 08, 2012, 18:25:21 pm

Hora local de Caracas 12m

Extraordinaria tormenta sobre tierra

Sin duda, mantiene una estructura increíble pese a haber cruzado toda el Yucatán. El relieve plano de la zona ayuda bastante... ¿Alcanzará la cat.2 en la Bahía de Campeche?

Vete a saber........ El CNH es bastante conservador, aunque de su discusión se desprende la posibilidad de que se regenere con fuerza cuando toque las aguas del GOM, cosa que ya está empezando a hacer...

000
WTNT45 KNHC 082036
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

ERNESTO HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL AFTER ITS PASSAGE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-ORGANIZED
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN...WHICH IS VERY NEAR
THE CENTER...SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY IS 45 KT.  RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  GIVEN
THE ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...THE AMOUNT
OF RE-STRENGTHENING WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON HOW LONG THE CYCLONE
STAYS OVER THE WATER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
ERNESTO WILL MOVE BACK OVER LAND IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS AND
THEREFORE SHOWS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY.  GIVEN THE
RELATIVE ORIENTATION OF THE TRACK TO THE COASTLINE...ONLY A SLIGHT
DIRECTIONAL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT ERNESTO SPENDS OVER
WATER...AND ITS LANDFALL INTENSITY.

AFTER ACCELERATING TO NEAR 13 KT OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE
FORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO BE SLOWING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT
270/11.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS WEAKENING THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO...AND A LITTLE MORE DECELERATION IS
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL
PREDICTION.  THE GFS FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS.  SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THAT
BASIN.  THAT UNUSUAL SCENARIO IS BEING DISMISSED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 18.9N  91.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 18.9N  93.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 18.5N  95.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...ON THE COAST
 36H  10/0600Z 18.2N  96.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  10/1800Z 18.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

hora local de Caracas 10pm

Ernesto bajo el doppler

ERNESTO hizo su segundo landfall, iniciando una vía de debilitamiento a partir de ahí, y volviendo a dejar lluvias torrenciales en México... Merece la pena seguir su evolución mientras emerge en aguas del Pacífico, ya que la baja residual puede servir de germen para un nuevo ciclón en el EPAC :O*

000
WTNT45 KNHC 092035
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL
ON THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF COATZACOALCOS AROUND
1800 UTC WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...
ERNESTO HAS MOVED FARTHER INLAND AND BEGUN TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS...AND THESE WINDS
ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER WATER NORTH OF THE CENTER.

SINCE THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND INTERACT
WITH HIGH TERRAIN...WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER TORRENTIAL
RAINS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.
ERNESTO IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS
FLOW PATTERN WILL FORCE ERNESTO ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST
TRACK OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO.

ALTHOUGH ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
REMNANT CIRCULATION IN 3 DAYS OR SO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 18.1N  95.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  10/0600Z 18.0N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  10/1800Z 17.5N  99.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  11/0600Z 17.5N 101.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Increíble su aspecto actual