Se ha formado la DT 02E en el Pacíico al Sur de Mexico: Avisos de Tormenta Tropical para los estados de Oaxaca y Chiapas:



2:00 PM PDT Tue May 28
Location: 14.2°N 96.5°W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

Asi luce en la visible



Raro que el el ATCF del CNH no tiene el índicador TD como corresponde, error?

EP, 02, 2013052818,   , BEST,   0, 140N,  965W,  30, 1005, LO

Va a faltar el pelo de un calvo para que alcance la categoría de huracán, antes de su impacto en tierra

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 290855
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013
200 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE STRUCTURE OF BARBARA HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.  THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE MIDDLE OF A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...COMPRISED OF COLD-TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION.
BANDING HAS INCREASED...WITH THE MOST PROMINENT BAND WRAPPING
ALMOST ENTIRELY AROUND THE CIRCULATION.  MORE RECENTLY...A PARTIAL
EYEWALL HAS BEEN NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY...WITH THE EYEWALL BECOMING
INCREASINGLY BETTER DEFINED.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 3.0 FROM TAFB
AND 3.5 FROM SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS THEREFORE BEEN
RAISED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/04. BARBARA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD DRAW THE CYCLONE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE TO THE
COAST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AFTER
CROSSING THE COAST...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF THE REMNANTS ENTERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO
THE GFS AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

SHEAR ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL SHOW ONLY LIGHT SHEAR
OVER BARBARA AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER VERY WARM SSTS AROUND 30C.
THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  IN ADDITION...AN EARLIER SSMI/S PASS
SHOWED A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL RING OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY A HARBINGER
OF A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THE LACK OF TIME
OVER WATER IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND WELL AS THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
BARBARA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. FOR THIS
REASON...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN IN AND NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 14.8N  95.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 15.7N  95.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 17.0N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/1800Z 18.0N  94.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

Casi casi... le falta cerrar ese eyewall que ha empezado a formar por su parte sur...
Es una bonita tormenta, muy al estilo WPAC.

Que tal!! Me encanta seguir su pagina soy de Progreso Yucatan y desde ayer por la mañana tenemos lluvias influencias de Barbara que tiene su cobertura en humedad es bastante grande. Saludos! ¿Saltaria al GOM???

Bienvenido al foro!
Si Barbara salta a la Bahía de Campeche, lo harían sólo sus remanentes, tendría que empezar de cero.
Se ha emitido una alerta por huracán en la Bahía de Tehuantepec.

Special Advisory

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...BARBARA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...

RECENT RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE THAT BARBARA HAS
BEEN TRYING TO FORM AN EYE...AND HAS APPARENTLY INTENSIFIED. BASED
UPON THE CURRENT TRENDS...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS WARRANTED TO
INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST OF BARBARA TO INDICATE HURRICANE
STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BASED ON RECENT CENTER FIXES...THERE
HAS BEEN A SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
TRACK. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE 1200 UTC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1200Z 15.2N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 15.7N 94.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 17.0N 94.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1800Z 18.0N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

BARBARA ES HURACÁN SEGÚN NHC en su pagina oficial 

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 291751
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...BARBARA BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 94.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE TONALA TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST.  THIS
POSITION IS JUST OFFSHORE OR ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTH OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO.  BARBARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR
10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND A NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION AT A DECREASING
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BARBARA WILL
CROSS THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...AND
BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN OAXACA AND WESTERN CHIAPAS MEXICO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN
OAXACA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS LIKELY RAISING WATER LEVELS BY 3 TO 5
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

Curioso lo del radar... me inclino más por una mala calibración del radar de Pto. Angel que por un fallo del GOES

Como ya han comentado más arriba, Bárbara es oficialmente el primer huracán del EPAC.

EP, 02, 2013052918,   , BEST,   0, 158N,  943W,  65,  990, HU

Wow...! Ya decía yo... Me temo que los meteorólogos del CNH les cuesta reconocer que cuando una tormenta está mostrando un ojo es porque está alcanzando la categoría de huracán en un buen número de casos...

Que tal!! Me encanta seguir su pagina soy de Progreso Yucatan y desde ayer por la mañana tenemos lluvias influencias de Barbara que tiene su cobertura en humedad es bastante grande. Saludos! ¿Saltaria al GOM???

Ya te han contestado los compañeros, pero es cierto que habrá que vigilar los remanentes, a ver cómo se comportan en el GOM.