000
WTNT41 KNHC 042056
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
400 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED THIS
AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED
WITH STRONG BANDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.  AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 53 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 48 KT...AND A FALLING MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 996 MB.  THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF
ABOUT 50 KT...AND THUS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED IDA.

THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...AND
IS NOW 300/5.  IDA IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THIS AFTERNOON ON THE STORM SLOWLY MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN RIDGE.  ONLY THE UKMET MODEL NOW KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER
WATER WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION.  THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.

ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING...IDA DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH MORE TIME LEFT BEFORE IT MOVES OVER NICARAGUA.   THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...
SHOWING SOME STRENGTHENING OF IDA...AND THEN REDUCED THEREAFTER DUE
TO THE EFFECTS OF LAND.  IN A FEW DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME REINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER... IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.

LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES FROM EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM IDA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/2100Z 12.0N  82.7W    50 KT
12HR VT     05/0600Z 12.4N  83.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 13.0N  84.1W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 13.7N  84.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 14.5N  85.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 16.0N  85.5W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 18.0N  86.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     09/1800Z 20.5N  86.5W    40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

000
WTNT41 KNHC 050836
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
400 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. EARLIER THERE WAS A LARGE EXPANSION OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS IN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WHILE IN THE LAST HOUR OR
TWO THE COLDEST TOPS HAVE TAKEN ON A MORE BANDED APPEARANCE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC WERE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
HOWEVER AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FOUND THAT IDA WAS ALREADY THAT
STRONG YESTERDAY WHEN IT HAD A MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WHILE THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA REFLECTS THE SMALL CHANCE THAT IDA COULD REACH
HURRICANE STATUS AS IS MAKES LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...WEAKENING
IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE TRACK FORECAST TAKES IDA BACK OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.  HOWEVER
...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE...SINCE
IDA MAY NOT SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH WATER AGAIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/06. THROUGH 48 HOURS THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AS IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BETWEEN A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  BEYOND THAT TIME...
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
FORWARD SPEED AS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IDA INTERACTS WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  GIVEN THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
SHOWN AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH IS A FAR EASTERN
OUTLIER.

THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES CAUSED BY EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0900Z 12.8N  83.4W    60 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 13.3N  83.9W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 13.9N  84.3W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 14.7N  84.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 15.7N  84.8W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     08/0600Z 18.0N  85.5W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N  86.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     10/0600Z 22.0N  87.0W    45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

000
WTCA41 TJSJ 051228
TCPSP1

BOLETIN
HURACAN IDA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO  4A
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL   AL112009
700 AM EST JUEVES 5 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009

CORREJIDO PARA ANADIR EL EXTENTO DE LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS

...IDA SE CONVIERTE EN HURACAN A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA A LA COSTA DE
NICARAGUA...

A LAS 700 AM...1200 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE NICARAGUA HA EMITIDO UN
AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA DESDE BLUEFIELDS
HACIA EL NORTE HASTA PUERTO CABEZAS. VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE
ESPERAN EN ALGUNOS LUGARES DENTRO DEL AREA AVISADA POR LAS PROXIMAS
HORAS.

UNA VIGILACIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE
NICARAGUA DESDE BLUEFIELDS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE
HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. UNA VIGILACIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE
CONDICIONES DE HURACANADAS SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA.

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA EL BORDE DE
NICARAGUA Y COSTA RICA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA BLUEFIELDS Y DESDE EL
NORTE DE PUERTO CABEZAS HASTA EL BORDE DE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. UN
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SON ESPERADAS DENTRO DEL AREA AVISADA EN 24 HORAS.

PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...VERIFIQUE
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.

A LAS 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN IDA ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 83.4 OESTE O
CERCA DE 60 MILLAS...100 KM...AL NORTE NORESTE DE BLUEFIELDS
NICARAGUA Y A 85 MILLAS...135 KM...AL SUR DE PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA.

IDA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE ALREDEDOR DE 7 MPH...11
KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL AL NORTE-NOROESTE Y UNA
REDUCCION EN LA VELOCIDAD EN EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...IDA DEBE DE TOCAR TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE
DE NICARAGUA ESTA MANANA...Y SE MUEVA A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DEL ESTE
DE NICARAGUA Y EL ESTE DE HONDURAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN ALREDEDOR DE 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. IDA ES CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA
DE HURACANES DE SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA QUE SE DEBILITE A MEDIDA
QUE SE VA MOVIENDO TIERRA ADENTRO SOBRE NICARAGUA EN EL DIA DE HOY.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACANES SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 15
MILLAS...25 KM DE SU CENTRO. VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SE EXTIENDEN FUERA DEL CENTRO HASTA 55 MILLAS...90 KILOMETROS.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 987 MB...29.15 PULGADAS.

SE ESPERA QUE IDA PRODUZCA UN TOTAL DE ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5
A 7 PULGADAS SOBRE LA ISLA DE SAN ANDRES CON TOTALES MAXIMOS DE 12
PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS SE ESPERAN
SOBRE EL ESTE DE NICARAGUA Y EL ESTE DE HONDURAS CON UN POSIBLE
MAXIMO DE 25 PULGADAS. ESTOS AGUACEROS PUEDEN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES
REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS.

LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DEBE AUMENTAR LOS NIVELES DEL AGUA A 3 PIES
COMO MUCHO SOBRE EL NIVEL DE TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE
NICARAGUA...CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS...CERCA DE Y
HACIA EL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO DE IDA TOQUE TIERRA.

...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 7:00 AM EST...
LOCALIZACION...12.8 NORTE 83.4 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 310 GRADOS A 7 MPH PRESION
MINIMA CENTRAL...987 MILIBARAS

LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 1000 PM EST.

$$

PRONOSTICADORES BRENNAN/BROWN/BLAKE