Tropical Storm KATE Forecast DiscussionHome Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive 000WTNT42 KNHC 101451TCDAT2TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1220151000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraftinvestigating Kate this morning indicate that the storm hascontinued to strengthen. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt basedon a peak SFMR wind of 61 kt from the Air Force aircraft. Given thelatest dropsonde data, the central pressure is estimated at 999 mb.Kate's center continues to be embedded within a small CDO feature,with aircraft data indicating some tilt to the circulation,consistent with 15 to 20 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed overthe cyclone.Despite increasing shear and cooling SSTs along the track, all ofthe guidance continues to suggest that Kate will strengthen duringthe next 24-36 hours, likely due in part to very cold temperaturesaloft. The NHC forecast follows this trend, and is above theguidance in the short range given the initial intensity, and showsKate peaking at 70 kt in 24 to 36 hours. As the shear increases toover 40 kt, Kate should lose tropical characteristics by 48 hoursand then weaken as it becomes fully extratropical by 72 hours. Theofficial forecast carries Kate as the dominant feature through 5days as it interacts with another extratropical low over the northAtlantic.Kate continues to accelerate, with an initial motion estimate of035/18. A further acceleration toward the east-northeast isforecast during the next 24 to 36 hours as Kate becomes fullyembedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A slowing of the forwardspeed is expected in 48 to 72 hours while Kate interacts with anupper-level trough during extratropical transition, followed by afaster northwestward motion over the north Atlantic at the end ofthe forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is largely an updateof the previous one. This forecast is close to the latest GFS trackthrough 48 hours and a little to the north of that model afterward.The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated withthe NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 10/1500Z 30.2N 74.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 32.5N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 35.3N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 37.8N 56.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 40.5N 51.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 13/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1200Z 47.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP120H 15/1200Z 55.5N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP$$Forecaster Brennan
000WTNT42 KNHC 110906TCDAT2HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015500 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015The overall structure of Kate has again not changed much inconventional satellite imagery since the previous advisory, with thecenter in an area of strong convection. However, a just receivedAMSR microwave overpass shows that the convective banding has becomebetter defined near the center. Based on this and satelliteintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB of 65 kt, Kate is upgraded toa hurricane.The initial motion is 055/35. Kate is now embedded in thewesterlies between the subtropical ridge and a baroclinic low nearNew England. The tropical cyclone should continue a generaleast-northeastward motion across the North Atlantic for the nextseveral days. However, a decrease in forward speed and someerratic motion are expected around 36-48 hours as Kate interactswith, and eventually absorbs, the baroclinic low. Despite thecomplexity added by the merger, the track guidance is in excellentagreement with only a small spread in direction and speed. The newforecast track is a little north of the previous track and liesnear the various consensus models.A combination of increasing shear and decreasing sea surfacetemperatures should prevent any additional intensification. Kateshould begin extratropical transition in 12-24 hours and complete itby 36 hours as the cyclone absorbs the baroclinic low. Theresulting extratropical low is forecast to be absorbed by a frontover the north Atlantic in 4 to 5 days.The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated withthe NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 11/0900Z 36.0N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 38.1N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 40.8N 53.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 42.3N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/0600Z 42.5N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0600Z 46.5N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0600Z 54.0N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Beven