BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al142010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009210647
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
     LISA, AL, L, , , , , 14, 2010, TS, O, 2010091812, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 4, AL142010

Ya es oficial su clasificación como tormenta tropical

WTNT34 KNHC 210852
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL142010
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM LISA...TWELFTH OF THE ATLANTIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 31.8W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

En la URL: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/disc_eur.html

podéis ver la animación de 24 horas de lo que estamos comentando en el foro.

No quedará como archivo histórico, pero bueno.

LISA está cogiendo fuelle a pesar de todo, y ahora se pronostica un pico de intensidad de 65 KT que le serviría para convertirse en otro huracán más... Y de momento se está moviendo hacia el norte

000
WTNT44 KNHC 212034
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

AFTER A SHORT-LIVED DECREASE IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...A BURST
OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT TRMM AND AMSU MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES INDICATE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE
TIGHTENED UP AND BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED...SUGGESTING THAT
THE VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.4/53 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/2. LISA HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN
A NORTH AND NORTHEAST DIRECTION...PROBABLY DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION
OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. NOW THAT THE VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS APPEAR TO
BE MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED...HOPEFULLY THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS
SCATTER IN THE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. LISA IS EXPECTED REMAIN IN
VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF LISA...WHICH SHOULD NUDGE THE
CYCLONE ON A SLOW WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY DIVERGENT BETWEEN THE NORTHWARD HWRF
AND THE WESTWARD GFDN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS...WHICH USUALLY FAVORS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS BELOW 40 PERCENT AFTER 24 HOURS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY
AIR...¿JULIA? IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO THE IMPROVED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT A 75-PERCENT EYEWALL
FEATURE EXISTED 6 HRS AGO AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED TO
BELOW -80C NEAR THE CENTER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP LISA SOUTH OF
20N LATITUDE AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH
48 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/2100Z 18.3N  31.6W    40 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 18.6N  31.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 19.0N  31.9W    60 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 19.3N  32.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 19.7N  33.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 20.4N  34.7W    55 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 21.0N  36.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     26/1800Z 21.0N  38.0W    40 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Pedazo de PRE, qué bien visto Pedro.

La fuerte corriente en chorro, "robando" esa pluma tropical a partir de LISA. Y ya sí me acuesto. Feliz seguimiento! Mañana habrá mucho que leer


By CIMSS.

Lisa está sufriendo con la cizalladura que le está metiendo el "vaguadón" atlántico responsable de la situación de hoy en Canarias, en esa interacción vaguada + LISA. De nuevo las perspectivas de pico de intensidad procuradas por el CNH han disminuido. Tampoco ayer veía claro por qué lo intensificaban tanto, teniendo ese vaguadón encima Y ahora hay que ver cómo le influye en su movimiento, porque por el sector occidental de la vaguada está bajando lo poco que queda de JULIA, así que la cosa está interesante :D1 :D1 :D1

000
WTNT44 KNHC 220841
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LISA.  THE
CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL MASS OF PULSATING DEEP CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH WITH FEWER BANDING FEATURES THAN YESTERDAY.  SEVERAL RECENT
MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS
ARE NOT CO-LOCATED...A SIGN THAT THE CYCLONE IS BEING IMPACTED BY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC ARE AT 2.5 AND
3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.  A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES
IS THE BASIS FOR KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. 

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT RECENT MICROWAVE AND
SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT IT BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.  A SHORT-TERM INITIAL MOTION FROM THESE FIXES
YIELDS AN ESTIMATE OF 060/4.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY DIVERGENT BUT GENERALLY SHOWS LISA DRIFTING SOUTH OR EAST IN
A REGION OF WEAK STEERING DURING THE 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...A TURN
TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED AS A
WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE STORM.  GIVEN THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE AND IS SLOWED FURTHER UNTIL A MORE
ESTABLISHED TREND IS EVIDENT IN THE GUIDANCE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF LISA
THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT IN 24-48 HOURS.  THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
IMPARTING A NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE STORM...BUT SHIPS MODEL
OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
DURING THIS TIME.  AFTER ABOUT 60-72 HOURS...HOWEVER...GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST A STRENGTHENING OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER
LISA...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKENING LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  OF COURSE...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHERE LISA IS LOCATED AT THAT TIME...AND THE GREATER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS FORECAST TRACK MAKES THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT DOWNWARD BEFORE 72 HOURS BUT REMAINS AT OR
ABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL OUTPUT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/0900Z 18.0N  30.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 18.0N  30.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.9N  30.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 17.8N  30.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 17.8N  30.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 18.5N  32.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 19.5N  35.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     27/0600Z 21.0N  38.0W    35 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

LISA, entre la cizalladura de la vaguada, su aire seco, y el que tiene alrededor, no es capaz de remontar. Se va a quedar en nada.