Otto parece que recoloca su centro pero creo que se debe a una ilusión de la animación.

Lo que se viene comentando durante la tarde en este hilo, se pone de manifiesto en la parte del boletín que hace referencia a su movimiento por las aguas abiertas del Atlántico, y fuera del ámbito tropical... Ese desacuerdo de los modelos y la existencia de esas salidas que lo llevan más allá de Azores con una estructura aún tropical más que evidente. A ver cómo evoluciona...

000
WTNT42 KNHC 082038
TCDAT2
HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 08 2010

OTTO CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER...ALONG WITH AN AREA OF OUTER
BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 77 KT FROM SAB AND 65 KT FROM TAFB...AND THERE IS A RECENT
CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 63 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 70 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE DATA.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS
GOOD IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR/POOR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 055/18.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...GUIDANCE...OR FORECAST TRACK DURING THE FIRST
72 HR OF THE FORECAST.  OTTO IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND IT SHOULD MOVE
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO.  AFTER 72
HR...THE GUIDANCE HAS BECOME DIVERGENT.  WHILE THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND HWRF STILL SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...
THE UKMET...CANADIAN...NOGAPS...AND GFDL NOW SHOW A CONTINUED
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THESE CAMPS...
FORECASTING OTTO TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR 84-96 HR BEFORE SHARPLY
TURNING IT DUE SOUTH.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE
GFS SCENARIO...BUT IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE
OTHER MODELS.  HOWEVER...THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK STILL LIES
WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND MORE
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK COULD BE NEEDED LATER.

OTTO WILL SPEND 12-24 HR IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR/WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS
SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME.  AFTER 24 HR...
INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
START A WEAKENING TREND.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AT ABOUT 48 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 72 HR.  HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE COMPLETION OF THIS
PROCESS DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON HOW CLOSE
OTTO WILL BE TO THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/2100Z 26.8N  62.3W    70 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 28.7N  59.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 31.3N  54.6W    75 KT
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 34.3N  48.2W    70 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 38.2N  40.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 42.0N  30.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 41.0N  25.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     13/1800Z 39.0N  20.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Según el CNH, OTTO ha alcanzado su pico de intensidad en la madrugada pasada y ahora se le pronostica un progresivo debilitamiento... Mantendremos un ojo puesto, porque siempre cabe la opción de que el ciclón se resista a iniciar esa TT y aguante con su estructura tropical más o menos organizada durante más tiempo del indicado.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 090232
TCDAT2
HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 08 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS DECREASED IN AREAL
COVERAGE...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -80C HAVE PERSISTED
NEAR THE UPPER-LEVEL CENTER. A 08/2217Z SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS
INDICATED THE EYE IS TILTED SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNSTREAM TO THE
NORTHEAST BY AT LEAST 35 NMI BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T5.0/90
KT FROM TAFB AND T4.5/77 KT FROM SAB...AND AROUND 67 KT FROM THE
UW-CIMSS ADT PROGRAM. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
INCREASED TO 75 KT...AND OTTO HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN STRENGTH GIVEN
THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN AT ALL LEVELS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/18. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES OTTO IS
NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A MASSIVE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS
FLOW REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OTTO TO THE NORTHEAST OR
EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE
GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT ON WHETHER OTTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST OR SLOW DOWN AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES
ISLANDS.  THERE IS MUCH LESS SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS
RUN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH A NOTED DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. OVERALL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS
MODEL...TVCN...THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF THAT
MODEL AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

CONVENTIONAL INFRARED SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OUTRUNNING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOTED IN
MICROWAVE DATA BY MORE THAN 60 NMI...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST SINCE OTTO WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS
AND EXPERIENCING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. TIMING
POSSIBLE DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IS
TRICKY. HOWEVER...SINCE OTTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-23C SSTS...BE
UNDERNEATH VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS EXCEEDING 40 KT...AND POSSIBLY
MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE BY 48 HOURS...OTTO IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A BLEND OF THE NHC
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...DUE IN PART TO THE TILTED VORTEX STRUCTURE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/0300Z 27.8N  60.8W    75 KT
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 29.7N  57.4W    70 KT
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 32.6N  51.7W    70 KT
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 36.1N  44.4W    65 KT
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 40.0N  36.4W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 43.0N  28.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     13/0000Z 43.0N  23.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     14/0000Z 40.0N  20.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Aqui el CNH lo manda en direccion Canarias 

CNH actualiza productos, e indica que OTTO está acelerando hacia el Atlántico Central... Sin embargo, aunque sigue generando potente convección, el aspecto general del ciclón es menos simétrico y más desgarrado debido a la acción de una cizalladura creciente, la que referíamos ayer que se veía en las imágenes de vapor de agua a modo de "precipicio"

Se sigue asumiendo que OTTO será extatropical cuando pase por Azores...

000
WTNT42 KNHC 090834
TCDAT2
HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010
500 AM AST SAT OCT 09 2010

OTTO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION IN A CDO WITH CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -80C...HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DISTORTED DUE TO 20 TO 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
THIS SHEAR IS ALSO TILTING THE VORTEX NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT AS
SEEN IN A 0021 UTC SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS OF 4.0 TO 5.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WHILE OTTO REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO SHEAR AND
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
CONTINUE BEYOND THAT TIME AS OTTO UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 055/21 IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO LAG BEHIND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.
OTTO WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE
TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THAT
POST-TROPICAL OTTO WILL MOVE AROUND THE TOP OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE AZORES. HOWEVER...
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE SHARPNESS OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD
TURN AND THE FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 TOWARD A BLEND OF THE UKMET
AND GFS MODELS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL AT THESE TIMES
DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0052 UTC ASCAT
PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/0900Z 29.2N  58.5W    75 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 31.1N  54.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 34.3N  48.3W    70 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 37.7N  40.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 41.3N  33.4W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 43.0N  27.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     13/0600Z 40.5N  24.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     14/0600Z 37.0N  22.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Bien??? Bien entre comillas....

Aqui donde tu me ves tambien me hace ilusion que llegue algo  Mientras no llegue a pasar nada grave!!